Braves struggle through another week, fall out of Wild Card

The Braves had a 3-4 week while playing without Chipper Jones, in the meantime learning that Mike Gonzalez is done for this year and probably the next.  Bobby Cox was also thrown out twice over the weekend, so he could be dodging questions about the career ejections record for weeks now.  Atlanta is now four games behind the league-leading Mets and a half-game out of the wild card spot.  So, how was your week?

This Week’s Stats

Scores and FanGraphs summaries:

5/22: Braves 8, Mets 1
5/23: Mets 3, Braves 0
5/24: Braves 2, Mets 1
5/25: Phillies 8, Braves 3
5/26: Phillies 6, Braves 4
5/27: Phillies 13, Braves 6
5/28: Braves 2, Brewers 1

Stats include Monday’s game, so this is for the last seven games:

Hitting PA AVG OBP SLG OPS WPA pLI WPA/LI Clutch pWPA pWPA/LI pClutch
Willie Harris 11 0.444 0.545 0.667 1.212 +0.083 0.64 +0.138 -0.055 +0.75 +1.25 -0.50
Chuck James 3 0.667 0.667 0.667 1.333 +0.074 1.11 +0.055 +0.019 +2.47 +1.83 +0.63
Edgar Renteria 25 0.190 0.320 0.429 0.749 +0.061 0.92 -0.037 +0.098 +0.24 -0.15 +0.39
Kyle Davies 4 0.333 0.500 1.333 1.833 +0.041 0.53 +0.111 -0.070 +1.03 +2.77 -1.75
Kelly Johnson 28 0.280 0.357 0.440 0.797 +0.020 0.82 -0.017 +0.037 +0.07 -0.06 +0.13
Peter Moylan 1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.005 0.18 -0.028 +0.023 -0.50 -2.78 +2.28
Andruw Jones 27 0.273 0.407 0.636 1.044 -0.013 0.70 +0.241 -0.254 -0.05 +0.89 -0.94
Pete Orr 4 0.250 0.250 0.250 0.500 -0.021 0.22 +0.004 -0.025 -0.53 +0.09 -0.62
John Smoltz 2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.033 0.67 -0.049 +0.016 -1.65 -2.47 +0.82
Jeff Francoeur 29 0.080 0.172 0.120 0.292 -0.046 0.80 -0.321 +0.275 -0.16 -1.11 +0.95
Chris Woodward 13 0.273 0.308 0.364 0.671 -0.053 0.81 -0.069 +0.016 -0.41 -0.53 +0.12
Tim Hudson 2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.059 1.08 -0.055 -0.004 -2.95 -2.73 -0.22
Buddy Carlyle 2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.064 1.51 -0.043 -0.021 -3.20 -2.13 -1.07
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 10 0.400 0.400 0.700 1.100 -0.066 0.78 +0.091 -0.157 -0.66 +0.91 -1.57
Scott Thorman 22 0.227 0.227 0.455 0.682 -0.128 0.77 -0.198 +0.070 -0.58 -0.90 +0.32
Martin Prado 21 0.200 0.238 0.200 0.438 -0.138 0.99 -0.180 +0.042 -0.66 -0.86 +0.20
Chipper Jones 8 0.143 0.125 0.143 0.268 -0.140 0.83 -0.174 +0.034 -1.75 -2.17 +0.42
Brian McCann 18 0.167 0.167 0.222 0.389 -0.219 0.96 -0.200 -0.019 -1.22 -1.11 -0.10
Matt Diaz 20 0.333 0.300 0.556 0.856 -0.250 1.09 +0.010 -0.260 -1.25 +0.05 -1.30
Totals 250 0.237 0.292 0.402 0.694 -0.956 0.84 -0.723 -0.233 -0.38 -0.29 -0.09
Total Pitching G GS IP ERA WHIP WPA pLI WPA/LI Clutch pWPA pWPA/LI pClutch
John Smoltz 1 1 7.0 0.00 1.00 +0.417 1.27 +0.289 +0.128 +1.49 +1.03 +0.46
Rafael Soriano 2 0 2.3 0.00 0.43 +0.357 1.99 +0.142 +0.215 +4.46 +1.77 +2.69
Bob Wickman 3 0 3.0 0.00 1.00 +0.290 1.99 +0.125 +0.165 +2.23 +0.96 +1.27
Chuck James 2 2 10.7 2.53 1.59 +0.147 1.25 -0.036 +0.183 +0.30 -0.07 +0.37
Oscar Villarreal 3 0 4.0 0.00 0.50 +0.067 0.33 +0.140 -0.073 +0.42 +0.88 -0.46
Macay McBride 2 0 2.0 9.00 1.50 +0.040 0.84 +0.046 -0.006 +0.44 +0.52 -0.07
Chad Paronto 2 0 2.3 7.71 1.29 +0.022 0.10 -0.156 +0.178 +0.22 -1.56 +1.78
Peter Moylan 3 0 4.7 3.86 0.86 +0.021 0.16 -0.051 +0.072 +0.12 -0.29 +0.40
Kyle Davies 2 2 12.3 6.57 1.46 -0.080 0.64 -0.067 -0.013 -0.15 -0.12 -0.02
Tyler Yates 4 0 4.0 6.75 1.75 -0.154 1.12 -0.162 +0.008 -0.77 -0.81 +0.04
Buddy Carlyle 1 1 4.0 11.25 2.00 -0.310 1.11 -0.052 -0.258 -1.55 -0.26 -1.29
Tim Hudson 1 1 6.7 6.75 1.95 -0.365 1.23 -0.092 -0.273 -1.07 -0.27 -0.80
Totals 26 7 63.0 4.43 1.37 +0.452 0.99 +0.125 +0.327 +0.16 +0.04 +0.12
Relief Pitching G IP TBF gmLI G/T tG/T USG
Rafael Soriano 2 2.3 8 2.92 2.77 2.02 -0.75
Bob Wickman 3 3.0 13 1.75 1.66 1.53 -0.13
Tyler Yates 4 4.0 20 1.11 1.06 0.45 -0.60
Macay McBride 2 2.0 9 0.95 0.90 1.26 0.36
Chad Paronto 2 2.3 10 0.43 0.41 0.00 -0.41
Peter Moylan 3 4.7 18 0.30 0.28 0.77 0.49
Oscar Villarreal 3 4.0 16 0.28 0.27 1.48 1.21
Totals 19 22.3 94 1.05 11

Stats for the whole season:

Hitting PA AVG OBP SLG OPS WPA pLI WPA/LI Clutch pWPA pWPA/LI pClutch
Kelly Johnson 218 0.276 0.385 0.481 0.866 +1.456 0.92 +1.049 +0.407 +0.67 +0.48 +0.19
Edgar Renteria 214 0.320 0.379 0.495 0.873 +1.308 0.98 +0.967 +0.341 +0.61 +0.45 +0.16
Chipper Jones 186 0.300 0.392 0.625 1.017 +0.568 0.98 +0.977 -0.409 +0.31 +0.53 -0.22
Willie Harris 72 0.381 0.458 0.492 0.950 +0.293 0.91 +0.273 +0.020 +0.41 +0.38 +0.03
Jeff Francoeur 218 0.281 0.335 0.457 0.792 +0.277 0.95 +0.034 +0.243 +0.13 +0.02 +0.11
Scott Thorman 141 0.246 0.277 0.448 0.724 +0.261 0.94 +0.289 -0.028 +0.19 +0.21 -0.02
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 36 0.323 0.417 0.452 0.868 +0.121 0.95 +0.120 +0.001 +0.34 +0.33 +0.00
Brian McCann 165 0.277 0.333 0.432 0.766 +0.082 1.01 -0.472 +0.554 +0.05 -0.29 +0.34
Matt Diaz 116 0.349 0.362 0.495 0.857 +0.004 0.96 +0.413 -0.409 +0.00 +0.36 -0.35
Andruw Jones 214 0.225 0.346 0.433 0.778 -0.017 1.08 +0.024 -0.041 -0.01 +0.01 -0.02
Peter Moylan 2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.020 0.38 -0.054 +0.034 -1.00 -2.68 +1.68
Oscar Villarreal 2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.055 0.84 -0.059 +0.004 -2.75 -2.94 +0.19
Buddy Carlyle 2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.064 1.51 -0.043 -0.021 -3.20 -2.13 -1.07
Anthony Lerew 3 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.072 0.88 -0.081 +0.009 -2.40 -2.70 +0.30
Mark Redman 6 0.000 0.167 0.000 0.167 -0.103 1.05 -0.090 -0.013 -1.72 -1.50 -0.21
Martin Prado 26 0.200 0.231 0.200 0.431 -0.179 0.89 -0.244 +0.065 -0.69 -0.94 +0.25
Pete Orr 31 0.200 0.226 0.233 0.459 -0.208 0.53 -0.195 -0.013 -0.67 -0.63 -0.04
Kyle Davies 18 0.067 0.111 0.267 0.378 -0.282 0.92 -0.221 -0.061 -1.57 -1.23 -0.34
Chuck James 22 0.133 0.182 0.133 0.315 -0.346 0.95 -0.336 -0.010 -1.57 -1.53 -0.04
Tim Hudson 28 0.167 0.214 0.208 0.423 -0.348 0.81 -0.288 -0.060 -1.24 -1.03 -0.21
John Smoltz 23 0.053 0.043 0.105 0.149 -0.364 0.75 -0.463 +0.099 -1.58 -2.02 +0.43
Chris Woodward 70 0.231 0.257 0.292 0.549 -0.428 1.01 -0.454 +0.026 -0.61 -0.65 +0.04
Craig Wilson 69 0.172 0.304 0.259 0.563 -0.441 0.93 -0.345 -0.096 -0.64 -0.50 -0.14
Brayan Pena 23 0.217 0.217 0.348 0.565 -0.507 1.42 -0.304 -0.203 -2.20 -1.32 -0.88
Ryan Langerhans 52 0.068 0.192 0.091 0.283 -0.674 0.89 -0.843 +0.169 -1.30 -1.62 +0.32
Totals 1957 0.263 0.332 0.431 0.763 +0.262 0.96 -0.346 +0.608 +0.01 -0.02 +0.03
Total Pitching G GS IP ERA WHIP WPA pLI WPA/LI Clutch pWPA pWPA/LI pClutch
Rafael Soriano 23 0 23.0 2.35 0.61 +2.170 1.38 +1.030 +1.140 +2.61 +1.24 +1.37
Tim Hudson 11 11 77.3 2.79 1.09 +1.146 0.90 +1.719 -0.573 +0.37 +0.56 -0.19
John Smoltz 11 11 73.3 2.58 1.20 +0.980 1.13 +0.931 +0.049 +0.32 +0.30 +0.02
Peter Moylan 17 0 24.0 2.25 1.00 +0.894 0.67 +0.220 +0.674 +0.99 +0.24 +0.75
Tyler Yates 26 0 24.7 4.01 1.14 +0.849 0.87 +0.376 +0.473 +0.83 +0.37 +0.46
Mike Gonzalez 18 0 17.0 1.06 1.35 +0.738 0.99 +0.413 +0.325 +1.05 +0.59 +0.46
Chuck James 11 11 58.3 3.86 1.51 +0.394 1.03 +0.092 +0.302 +0.15 +0.04 +0.12
Macay McBride 9 0 7.7 7.04 2.61 +0.137 0.36 -0.148 +0.285 +0.31 -0.34 +0.65
Kevin Barry 1 0 2.0 22.50 4.00 -0.007 0.02 -0.230 +0.223 -0.05 -1.64 +1.59
Bob Wickman 17 0 15.3 2.93 1.57 -0.121 2.07 +0.108 -0.229 -0.17 +0.15 -0.32
Chad Paronto 18 0 14.3 8.16 2.23 -0.134 0.81 -0.500 +0.366 -0.19 -0.70 +0.52
Buddy Carlyle 1 1 4.0 11.25 2.00 -0.310 1.11 -0.052 -0.258 -1.55 -0.26 -1.29
Anthony Lerew 3 3 11.7 7.71 1.80 -0.343 0.88 -0.534 +0.191 -0.60 -0.94 +0.34
Oscar Villarreal 18 0 25.0 3.60 1.40 -0.422 0.62 -0.244 -0.178 -0.39 -0.22 -0.16
Steve Colyer 7 0 3.7 4.91 3.55 -0.537 0.98 -0.309 -0.228 -2.44 -1.40 -1.04
Kyle Davies 9 9 50.7 5.51 1.56 -0.931 0.98 -0.717 -0.214 -0.41 -0.32 -0.09
Mark Redman 6 5 21.7 11.63 2.26 -1.293 0.94 -1.239 -0.054 -1.11 -1.07 -0.05
Totals 206 51 453.7 4.17 1.41 +3.210 0.98 +0.914 +2.296 +0.16 +0.05 +0.12
Relief Pitching G IP TBF gmLI G/T tG/T USG
Bob Wickman 17 15.3 72 1.71 1.51 1.03 -0.49
Rafael Soriano 23 23.0 83 1.71 1.51 1.65 0.14
Tyler Yates 26 24.7 102 1.11 0.99 1.15 0.17
Mike Gonzalez 18 17.0 70 1.04 0.92 1.28 0.36
Steve Colyer 7 3.7 22 1.01 0.90 0.14 -0.76
Chad Paronto 18 14.3 71 0.86 0.76 0.54 -0.23
Macay McBride 9 7.7 44 0.82 0.72 0.75 0.03
Oscar Villarreal 18 25.0 109 0.81 0.72 0.81 0.09
Peter Moylan 17 24.0 90 0.80 0.71 1.08 0.37
Kevin Barry 1 2.0 14 0.03 0.03 0.00 -0.03
Totals 154 156.7 677 1.13 40

Biggest plays of the week:

  1. Edgar Renteria doubled in two runs off Adam Eaton in the 3rd inning of Saturday’s loss (+.169)
  2. Tyler Yates got J.J. Hardy to line out, preserving a 2-1 lead in the 7th inning of yesterday’s game (+.163).
  3. Rafael Soriano struck out Ryan Braun, preserving the same 2-1 lead later that inning (+.132).
  4. Bob Wickman got Jose Reyes to fly out, ending Thursday’s game (+.129).
  5. Andruw Jones homered off Chris Capuano to give the Braves a 1-0 lead in the 4th inning of yesterday’s game (+.128).

Comments

It was another rough weekend for Atlanta, with the Phillies coming to town and sweeping the Braves, but a series win against the Mets and a Memorial Day win over the Brewers kept it from being a total loss.

The Braves’ hitters were nothing spectacular, with only three regulars in the black: Willie Harris (+.083), Edgar Renteria (+.061), and Kelly Johnson (+.020).  Some solid hitting by starting pitchers accounted for the rest of the positive weeks.  Andruw, Salty, and Diaz each had good weeks that were spoiled by poor clutch performance, so it’s debatable whether they were good weeks at all.  Jeff Francoeur was the opposite, having a pretty awful week but performing well enough in the clutch to make it look average.

The pitching staff got a good start and a bad start each by Kyle Davies and Chuck James, a good start by Smoltz, a bad start by plug Buddy Carlyle, and a rare bad outing from Tim Hudson.  The Braves could clearly use some help in this area, and I’m hoping they’ll act now and either deal a prospect package for a veteran (like Dontrelle Willis) or another Major League-ready prospect (like Yovani Gallardo or one of the Twins’ promising young guys).

With the exception of Tyler Yates, the relief corps had another good week.  Bob Wickman looks like he’s healthy again, and he combined with Rafael Soriano to throw 5 1/3 innings with no earned runs.  They added well over a full win to the team’s week in that short bit of work, which is all you can ask of your top relievers.  Oscar Villarreal pitched four scoreless innings in less-crucial situations, rounding out the rest of the solid relief work.

The Road Ahead

There are two more games in Milwaukee this week, followed by an off day Thursday and a weekend series at the Cubs.  Here are the probables:

Tuesday: John Smoltz vs. Ben Sheets
Wednesday: Tim Hudson vs. Dave Bush
Friday: Kyle Davies vs. Carlos Zambrano
Saturday: Chuck James vs. Rich Hill
Sunday: John Smoltz vs. Jason Marquis

There are no easy games this week, so the Braves will need good starts from everyone and a bit more on the offensive side as well.  Tonight’s matchup should be especially fantastic, so I hope you get the chance to watch.  I’ll probably be doing some related reading (J.C. Bradbury’s The Baseball Economist) while the game is on.  My TV shows have made me get behind on some books I wanted to read, and that one was at the top of my list.

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