2009 NCAA Tournament Log5 and Picks

I don’t have a lot of commentary right now since I’m on vacation (spring training is pretty cool, you know), but I have made my NCAA Tournament picks and computed the Log5 win probabilities based on KenPom’s rankings. See below.  There are actually five brackets there (my ESPN entries), but #1 is the one I […]

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Log5 for the D-II South Region

I’ve probably exhausted analysis of the NCAA D-II South Regional tournament field as a whole by now, but I do have the log5 predicted outcomes. The Pythagorean win percentages, ratings, and ranks are courtesy of a simple ratings formula implemented by Doug Sparks (“Ratings” are on a linear scale based on points, and “Ranks” are […]

GSC Tournament updated log5, stats, and quick recaps

The opening round games were last night, and everything went pretty much as expected. That’s bad news, at least relatively speaking, for the favorites, who suffer slightly in the updated Log5 predictions because of the increasing quality of their potential opponents. Some quick recaps: #5W Arkansas Tech 65, #4E Alabama-Huntsville 49 The Chargers bowed out […]

Weekly Notes: February 21, 2008

I didn’t do any notes last week, so here’s what’s going on: Let’s start with a quick comment or two on today’s big NYT story about John McCain’s relationship with a lobbyist: I don’t much care about the adultery angle, nor do I think this was a sinister plot by the Times to destroy the […]

The Final Four are set

Whoops, it looks like I never got around to posting the log5 probabilities for the Elite 8, and Kenpom has them now for the Final Four.  Florida’s looking like the favorite, but we have a pretty evenly-matched group.  I guess that’s what happens when there are two one-seeds and two two-seeds (which at least is […]