Log5 for the D-II South Region

I’ve probably exhausted analysis of the NCAA D-II South Regional tournament field as a whole by now, but I do have the log5 predicted outcomes. The Pythagorean win percentages, ratings, and ranks are courtesy of a simple ratings formula implemented by Doug Sparks (“Ratings” are on a linear scale based on points, and “Ranks” are within the D-II South only). The ratings include no home-court advantage, so Florida Southern, who is hosting the regional, is underrated in these calculations. Here they are:

Some notes:

  • Harding is at the bottom of the list, and it’s fairly clear that the Bisons got favorable treatment based on their performance during the conference season and tournament, because they were just the 10th-best team by this fairly simple measure.
  • Rollins was the best team left out of the tournament: #6 in Doug’s rankings.
  • Christian Brothers was the best team in the region, but their tougher first round opponent still makes them a slight underdog to Florida Southern. That gap would be even wider, obviously, with home-court advantage factored in.
  • The Bisons benefit from having a fairly weak 3-seed as their first round opponent. Tampa rates just fifth-best, so they would seem to be beatable.
  • You might as well reverse the seeds in the Eckerd-Benedict matchup, although Benedict does appear to be tournament-worthy.

The last thing I’m hoping to do before Saturday’s game is attempt to preview Tampa, despite knowing very little about them or the Sunshine State Conference in general.


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