Here are each team’s chances of winning the GSC Tournament, courtesy of the Log5 method:
A few notes:
- Christian Brothers has been the best team in the GSC West by point differential, so that and their #2 seed gave them an edge over Harding, despite the tougher quarterfinal matchup.
- Even though UAH beat the Bisons twice this year, they’ve struggled through their conference schedule, being outscored by 4 points per game. Thus, they have the longest odds of winning the tournament, at 228:1. Arkansas Tech is a better bet to win that game, but either way, Harding’s quarterfinal opponent will be a team they lost to twice already this year.
- Having said that, Harding’s side of the bracket is worse in every slot except #3, where OBU is probably better than West Georgia.
- The Ouachita-Valdosta State matchup looks to be very close on paper, with only thousandths of a percentage point separating the teams’ Pythagorean win percentages.
The Bisons fell to 7th in the latest regional rankings, meaning they’ll need a solid performance in the tournament (at least one win, perhaps two) to make the NCAA field. Losing to Christian Brothers probably kept them from a virtually guaranteed spot. Harding’s a fairly safe bet to advance to the semis unless there’s something unique about UAH and ATU when it comes to beating the Bisons, but they barely have a 1-in-3 chance of making the finals by these numbers. As is the case for all of these teams, though, they can decide their own fate by winning the GSC.