Offense is overrated anyway, right? Pitching and defense win championships, don’t they? The Braves are learning that’s not really the case after giving up a respectable 12 runs to the Tigers this weekend but coming up short in each game. After a 9-4 win over Boston on Monday, the team dropped five in a row while scoring just a single run over that stretch. I went to Saturday’s game, and I’ll have a recap on that later (probably tomorrow). I was fortunate enough to see them score a run and to see Bobby Cox tie the career ejection record, which I guess is exciting if you’re not actually going to win anything. The Braves certainly won’t if the bats don’t heat up soon. Let’s get to the summaries:
This week’s stats
Scores and FanGraphs summaries:
6/18: Braves 9, Red Sox 4
6/19: Red Sox 4, Braves 0
6/20: Red Sox 11, Braves nil
6/22: Tigers 5, Braves nothing
6/23: Tigers 2, Braves 1 (!!!!)
6/24: Tigers 5, Braves love
Stats for the week alone:
| Hitting | PA | OPS | pLI | WPA | WPA/LI | Clutch | CP | pWPA | pWPA/LI | pClutch | pCP |
| Matt Diaz | 12 | 0.697 | 0.78 | +0.117 | -0.002 | +0.119 | +0.119 | +0.98 | -0.02 | +0.99 | +0.99 |
| Chuck James | 4 | 0.583 | 1.48 | +0.027 | -0.029 | +0.056 | +0.069 | +0.68 | -0.72 | +1.39 | +1.74 |
| Buddy Carlyle | 1 | 0.000 | 0.12 | -0.003 | -0.025 | +0.022 | +0.000 | -0.30 | -2.50 | +2.20 | +0.00 |
| Pete Orr | 2 | 0.000 | 0.16 | -0.008 | -0.057 | +0.049 | +0.001 | -0.40 | -2.87 | +2.47 | +0.04 |
| John Smoltz | 1 | 0.000 | 0.48 | -0.012 | -0.025 | +0.013 | +0.000 | -1.20 | -2.50 | +1.30 | +0.00 |
| Willie Harris | 15 | 0.829 | 0.59 | -0.027 | +0.050 | -0.077 | -0.056 | -0.18 | +0.33 | -0.51 | -0.38 |
| Chipper Jones | 19 | 0.868 | 0.98 | -0.043 | +0.008 | -0.051 | -0.051 | -0.23 | +0.04 | -0.27 | -0.27 |
| Tim Hudson | 2 | 0.000 | 0.86 | -0.044 | -0.051 | +0.007 | -0.000 | -2.20 | -2.55 | +0.35 | -0.01 |
| Kyle Davies | 2 | 0.000 | 1.21 | -0.063 | -0.052 | -0.011 | +0.000 | -3.15 | -2.61 | -0.54 | +0.00 |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 8 | 0.750 | 0.66 | -0.091 | -0.062 | -0.029 | -0.050 | -1.14 | -0.78 | -0.36 | -0.62 |
| Brian McCann | 18 | 0.444 | 1.02 | -0.135 | -0.261 | +0.126 | +0.132 | -0.75 | -1.45 | +0.70 | +0.73 |
| Chris Woodward | 7 | 0.000 | 0.76 | -0.136 | -0.157 | +0.021 | -0.016 | -1.94 | -2.24 | +0.30 | -0.23 |
| Scott Thorman | 17 | 0.673 | 0.92 | -0.174 | +0.056 | -0.230 | -0.225 | -1.02 | +0.33 | -1.35 | -1.33 |
| Jeff Francoeur | 22 | 0.511 | 0.70 | -0.195 | -0.263 | +0.068 | -0.012 | -0.89 | -1.19 | +0.31 | -0.06 |
| Yunel Escobar | 11 | 0.091 | 0.78 | -0.203 | -0.203 | -0.000 | -0.044 | -1.85 | -1.84 | -0.00 | -0.40 |
| Kelly Johnson | 22 | 0.390 | 0.80 | -0.210 | -0.123 | -0.087 | -0.111 | -0.95 | -0.56 | -0.39 | -0.51 |
| Andruw Jones | 19 | 0.273 | 0.91 | -0.235 | -0.248 | +0.013 | -0.009 | -1.24 | -1.30 | +0.07 | -0.05 |
| Edgar Renteria | 23 | 0.666 | 0.81 | -0.256 | -0.149 | -0.107 | -0.136 | -1.11 | -0.65 | -0.47 | -0.59 |
| Totals | 205 | 0.523 | 0.83 | -1.691 | -1.594 | -0.097 | -0.390 | -0.82 | -0.78 | -0.05 | -0.19 |
| Total Pitching | IP | ERA | pLI | WPA | WPA/LI | Clutch | CP | pWPA | pWPA/LI | pClutch | pCP |
| Kyle Davies | 6.3 | 2.84 | 0.99 | +0.119 | +0.157 | -0.038 | -0.037 | +0.48 | +0.63 | -0.15 | -0.15 |
| Rafael Soriano | 2.0 | 13.50 | 0.74 | +0.054 | -0.099 | +0.153 | +0.128 | +0.45 | -0.83 | +1.28 | +1.07 |
| Chuck James | 10.3 | 5.23 | 1.05 | +0.050 | +0.024 | +0.026 | +0.025 | +0.10 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.05 |
| Bob Wickman | 1.3 | 0.00 | 0.75 | +0.045 | +0.055 | -0.010 | +0.004 | +0.90 | +1.09 | -0.19 | +0.08 |
| Tyler Yates | 1.7 | 5.40 | 0.88 | +0.036 | -0.029 | +0.065 | +0.062 | +0.45 | -0.37 | +0.82 | +0.77 |
| Chad Paronto | 4.0 | 0.00 | 0.21 | +0.033 | +0.078 | -0.045 | +0.017 | +0.21 | +0.49 | -0.28 | +0.11 |
| Oscar Villarreal | 5.0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | +0.027 | +0.296 | -0.269 | -0.025 | +0.17 | +1.85 | -1.68 | -0.15 |
| Peter Moylan | 3.7 | 2.45 | 0.34 | +0.009 | +0.093 | -0.084 | -0.023 | +0.06 | +0.66 | -0.60 | -0.16 |
| Macay McBride | 1.7 | 5.40 | 0.08 | +0.002 | -0.094 | +0.096 | +0.010 | +0.03 | -1.17 | +1.20 | +0.12 |
| Wil Ledezma | 2.0 | 4.50 | 0.11 | -0.012 | +0.008 | -0.020 | -0.013 | -0.17 | +0.11 | -0.29 | -0.18 |
| Tim Hudson | 5.3 | 6.75 | 0.92 | -0.112 | -0.300 | +0.188 | +0.164 | -0.45 | -1.20 | +0.75 | +0.65 |
| John Smoltz | 6.0 | 7.50 | 1.09 | -0.152 | -0.008 | -0.144 | -0.144 | -0.58 | -0.03 | -0.56 | -0.55 |
| Buddy Carlyle | 3.7 | 17.18 | 0.44 | -0.404 | -0.443 | +0.039 | -0.209 | -1.76 | -1.93 | +0.17 | -0.91 |
| Totals | 53.0 | 5.26 | 0.72 | -0.305 | -0.263 | -0.042 | -0.041 | -0.13 | -0.11 | -0.02 | -0.02 |
| Relief Pitching | G | IP | TBF | gmLI | G/T | tG/T | USG | ||||
| Rafael Soriano | 2 | 2.0 | 12 | 0.49 | 1.44 | 3.53 | 2.09 | ||||
| Tyler Yates | 2 | 1.7 | 8 | 0.59 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 0.28 | ||||
| Chad Paronto | 4 | 4.0 | 16 | 0.16 | 0.47 | 0.96 | 0.49 | ||||
| Macay McBride | 2 | 1.7 | 8 | 0.08 | 0.22 | 0.80 | 0.58 | ||||
| Bob Wickman | 2 | 1.3 | 5 | 0.44 | 1.29 | 0.66 | -0.63 | ||||
| Wil Ledezma | 2 | 2.0 | 7 | 0.10 | 0.28 | 0.27 | 0.00 | ||||
| Peter Moylan | 4 | 3.7 | 14 | 0.46 | 1.35 | 0.05 | -1.30 | ||||
| Oscar Villarreal | 3 | 5.0 | 16 | 0.44 | 1.28 | 0.00 | -1.28 | ||||
| Totals | 21 | 21.3 | 86 | 0.34 | 18 |
And for the season to date:
| Hitting | PA | OPS | pLI | WPA | WPA/LI | Clutch | CP | pWPA | pWPA/LI | pClutch | pCP |
| Kelly Johnson | 316 | 0.832 | 0.91 | +1.385 | +1.263 | +0.122 | +0.241 | +0.44 | +0.40 | +0.04 | +0.08 |
| Edgar Renteria | 310 | 0.886 | 0.96 | +1.141 | +1.300 | -0.159 | -0.111 | +0.37 | +0.42 | -0.05 | -0.04 |
| Willie Harris | 138 | 0.935 | 0.93 | +0.843 | +0.607 | +0.236 | +0.280 | +0.61 | +0.44 | +0.17 | +0.20 |
| Chipper Jones | 227 | 1.009 | 0.97 | +0.590 | +1.219 | -0.629 | -0.593 | +0.26 | +0.54 | -0.28 | -0.26 |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 80 | 0.816 | 0.99 | +0.377 | +0.056 | +0.321 | +0.322 | +0.47 | +0.07 | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| Yunel Escobar | 77 | 0.673 | 1.00 | +0.284 | -0.100 | +0.384 | +0.384 | +0.37 | -0.13 | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Brian McCann | 242 | 0.697 | 1.05 | +0.133 | -1.034 | +1.167 | +1.215 | +0.05 | -0.43 | +0.48 | +0.50 |
| Peter Moylan | 3 | 0.333 | 0.39 | -0.009 | -0.027 | +0.018 | +0.001 | -0.30 | -0.89 | +0.59 | +0.05 |
| Lance Cormier | 2 | 0.500 | 0.58 | -0.017 | +0.008 | -0.025 | -0.021 | -0.85 | +0.39 | -1.24 | -1.07 |
| Oscar Villarreal | 2 | 0.000 | 0.84 | -0.055 | -0.059 | +0.004 | -0.006 | -2.75 | -2.94 | +0.19 | -0.29 |
| Anthony Lerew | 3 | 0.000 | 0.88 | -0.072 | -0.081 | +0.009 | -0.001 | -2.40 | -2.70 | +0.30 | -0.02 |
| Mark Redman | 6 | 0.167 | 1.05 | -0.103 | -0.090 | -0.013 | -0.009 | -1.72 | -1.50 | -0.21 | -0.15 |
| Matt Diaz | 168 | 0.816 | 0.95 | -0.110 | +0.342 | -0.452 | -0.436 | -0.07 | +0.20 | -0.27 | -0.26 |
| Jeff Francoeur | 320 | 0.739 | 0.94 | -0.112 | -0.559 | +0.447 | +0.416 | -0.04 | -0.17 | +0.14 | +0.13 |
| Buddy Carlyle | 8 | 0.000 | 1.16 | -0.230 | -0.200 | -0.030 | +0.003 | -2.88 | -2.50 | -0.37 | +0.04 |
| Martin Prado | 30 | 0.412 | 0.93 | -0.240 | -0.286 | +0.046 | +0.026 | -0.80 | -0.95 | +0.15 | +0.09 |
| Kyle Davies | 25 | 0.621 | 0.89 | -0.303 | -0.090 | -0.213 | -0.223 | -1.21 | -0.36 | -0.85 | -0.89 |
| Tim Hudson | 35 | 0.495 | 0.85 | -0.311 | -0.220 | -0.091 | -0.123 | -0.89 | -0.63 | -0.26 | -0.35 |
| John Smoltz | 27 | 0.205 | 0.72 | -0.369 | -0.500 | +0.131 | -0.011 | -1.37 | -1.85 | +0.49 | -0.04 |
| Chuck James | 30 | 0.303 | 0.97 | -0.378 | -0.468 | +0.090 | +0.075 | -1.26 | -1.56 | +0.30 | +0.25 |
| Scott Thorman | 222 | 0.683 | 0.94 | -0.383 | -0.094 | -0.289 | -0.295 | -0.17 | -0.04 | -0.13 | -0.13 |
| Craig Wilson | 69 | 0.563 | 0.93 | -0.441 | -0.345 | -0.096 | -0.119 | -0.64 | -0.50 | -0.14 | -0.17 |
| Brayan Pena | 23 | 0.565 | 1.42 | -0.507 | -0.304 | -0.203 | -0.076 | -2.20 | -1.32 | -0.88 | -0.33 |
| Pete Orr | 54 | 0.434 | 0.63 | -0.591 | -0.504 | -0.087 | -0.273 | -1.09 | -0.93 | -0.16 | -0.50 |
| Ryan Langerhans | 52 | 0.283 | 0.89 | -0.674 | -0.843 | +0.169 | +0.073 | -1.30 | -1.62 | +0.32 | +0.14 |
| Chris Woodward | 98 | 0.489 | 1.07 | -0.837 | -0.838 | +0.001 | +0.062 | -0.85 | -0.85 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Andruw Jones | 315 | 0.689 | 1.07 | -1.035 | -0.722 | -0.313 | -0.263 | -0.33 | -0.23 | -0.10 | -0.08 |
| Totals | 2882 | 0.738 | 0.97 | -2.024 | -2.570 | +0.546 | +0.541 | -0.07 | -0.09 | +0.02 | +0.02 |
| Total Pitching | IP | ERA | pLI | WPA | WPA/LI | Clutch | CP | pWPA | pWPA/LI | pClutch | pCP |
| Rafael Soriano | 32.7 | 3.03 | 1.20 | +2.414 | +1.109 | +1.305 | +1.084 | +1.98 | +0.91 | +1.07 | +0.89 |
| Tyler Yates | 32.3 | 3.34 | 0.91 | +1.017 | +0.524 | +0.493 | +0.539 | +0.75 | +0.39 | +0.37 | +0.40 |
| Peter Moylan | 39.7 | 2.27 | 0.59 | +0.967 | +0.430 | +0.537 | +0.713 | +0.62 | +0.28 | +0.35 | +0.46 |
| John Smoltz | 94.7 | 3.14 | 1.11 | +0.881 | +1.061 | -0.180 | -0.293 | +0.22 | +0.27 | -0.05 | -0.07 |
| Tim Hudson | 105.0 | 3.43 | 0.96 | +0.782 | +1.636 | -0.854 | -0.791 | +0.18 | +0.38 | -0.20 | -0.18 |
| Mike Gonzalez | 17.0 | 1.06 | 0.99 | +0.738 | +0.413 | +0.325 | +0.331 | +1.05 | +0.59 | +0.46 | +0.47 |
| Chuck James | 86.0 | 4.29 | 1.01 | +0.457 | -0.134 | +0.591 | +0.593 | +0.12 | -0.04 | +0.15 | +0.15 |
| Macay McBride | 15.0 | 4.20 | 0.35 | +0.122 | -0.050 | +0.172 | +0.139 | +0.16 | -0.07 | +0.23 | +0.19 |
| Blaine Boyer | 5.3 | 3.38 | 0.44 | +0.062 | -0.098 | +0.160 | +0.105 | +0.24 | -0.38 | +0.61 | +0.40 |
| Kevin Barry | 2.0 | 22.50 | 0.02 | -0.007 | -0.230 | +0.223 | -0.003 | -0.05 | -1.64 | +1.59 | -0.02 |
| Wil Ledezma | 2.0 | 4.50 | 0.11 | -0.012 | +0.008 | -0.020 | -0.013 | -0.17 | +0.11 | -0.29 | -0.18 |
| Chad Paronto | 27.7 | 4.88 | 0.58 | -0.051 | -0.436 | +0.385 | +0.200 | -0.04 | -0.35 | +0.31 | +0.16 |
| Oscar Villarreal | 38.0 | 3.55 | 0.56 | -0.297 | +0.072 | -0.369 | -0.337 | -0.18 | +0.04 | -0.23 | -0.21 |
| Anthony Lerew | 11.7 | 7.71 | 0.88 | -0.343 | -0.534 | +0.191 | +0.126 | -0.60 | -0.94 | +0.34 | +0.22 |
| Bob Wickman | 24.0 | 3.38 | 2.07 | -0.373 | +0.111 | -0.484 | -0.603 | -0.34 | +0.10 | -0.44 | -0.55 |
| Steve Colyer | 3.7 | 4.91 | 0.98 | -0.537 | -0.309 | -0.228 | -0.235 | -2.44 | -1.40 | -1.04 | -1.07 |
| Buddy Carlyle | 28.0 | 6.11 | 0.92 | -0.611 | -0.210 | -0.401 | -0.418 | -0.49 | -0.17 | -0.32 | -0.34 |
| Lance Cormier | 7.7 | 15.26 | 0.76 | -0.633 | -1.051 | +0.418 | +0.165 | -1.51 | -2.50 | +0.99 | +0.39 |
| Kyle Davies | 78.0 | 5.42 | 0.97 | -1.283 | -0.697 | -0.586 | -0.610 | -0.37 | -0.20 | -0.17 | -0.18 |
| Mark Redman | 21.7 | 11.63 | 0.94 | -1.293 | -1.239 | -0.054 | -0.132 | -1.11 | -1.07 | -0.05 | -0.11 |
| Totals | 672.0 | 4.31 | 0.95 | +2.000 | +0.376 | +1.624 | +0.559 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.06 | +0.02 |
| Relief Pitching | G | IP | TBF | gmLI | G/T | tG/T | USG | ||||
| Rafael Soriano | 33 | 32.7 | 122 | 1.51 | 1.54 | 2.00 | 0.47 | ||||
| Peter Moylan | 30 | 39.7 | 155 | 0.70 | 0.71 | 1.56 | 0.86 | ||||
| Tyler Yates | 34 | 32.3 | 135 | 1.08 | 1.10 | 1.36 | 0.26 | ||||
| Mike Gonzalez | 18 | 17.0 | 70 | 1.04 | 1.06 | 1.11 | 0.05 | ||||
| Chad Paronto | 30 | 27.7 | 123 | 0.66 | 0.67 | 0.95 | 0.28 | ||||
| Macay McBride | 18 | 15.0 | 75 | 0.66 | 0.67 | 0.88 | 0.21 | ||||
| Blaine Boyer | 5 | 5.3 | 26 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.84 | 0.40 | ||||
| Kevin Barry | 1 | 2.0 | 14 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.71 | 0.68 | ||||
| Wil Ledezma | 2 | 2.0 | 7 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.70 | 0.60 | ||||
| Mark Redman | 1 | 1.3 | 10 | 0.45 | 0.46 | 0.56 | 0.10 | ||||
| Steve Colyer | 7 | 3.7 | 22 | 1.01 | 1.03 | 0.44 | -0.59 | ||||
| Oscar Villarreal | 26 | 38.0 | 162 | 0.69 | 0.70 | 0.32 | -0.38 | ||||
| Buddy Carlyle | 1 | 1.0 | 4 | 0.58 | 0.59 | 0.22 | -0.37 | ||||
| Bob Wickman | 27 | 24.0 | 110 | 1.59 | 1.62 | 0.00 | -1.62 | ||||
| Totals | 233 | 241.7 | 1035 | 0.98 | 125 |
Best plays of the week:
- Matt Diaz doubled to left off Tim Byrdak to lead off the 8th inning of Saturday’s game (+.170).
- Brian McCann doubled off Curt Schilling in the 4th inning of Monday’s game, scoring Edgar Renteria and advancing Chipper Jones to third, also giving the Braves a 2-1 lead (+.144).
- Brian McCann hit a 3-run homer off Schilling the next inning, making the lead 6-1 (+.123).
- Chipper Jones homered off Justin Verlander in the 4th inning of Saturday’s game, cutting the Tigers’ lead to 2-1 (+.116).
- Chuck James singled off Curt Schilling while the bases were loaded in the 4th inning of Monday’s game, giving the Braves a 3-1 lead (+.094).
Comments
Notice that all of the Braves’ best plays came in either Monday’s win or Saturday’s loss, the only two games in which the team had a fighting chance this week. Obviously the offense has completely quit producing since Monday, and it shows in the WPA stats. Hopefully the players will stop sniping at each other in the media and get things right on the field.
Only two Braves hitters were above zero this week: Matt Diaz and Chuck James. Willie Harris and Chipper Jones had decent weeks, and everyone else was pretty bad. Renteria’s week looks decent at 7-for-22, but he hit into two double plays, pulling him to the bottom of the list for once. Here are some of the hitting lines for this week:
McCann: 2-for-18 with a double
Thorman: 3-for-16 with a walk, a double, and a homer
Francoeur: 5-for-21 with a walk
Escobar: 0-for-10 with a walk
Johnson: 2-for-17 with 3 walks
Andruw: 1-for-16 with 3 walks
For the week, the team hit .201/.253/.270 with a .523 OPS, which is not going to work at all. Francoeur and McCann aren’t getting their hits, and we won’t even discuss Andruw, who has the worst WPA of all the hitters, including last night’s inexplicable start at first base, Chris Woodward.
The pitchers mostly hovered around zero for the week in WPA, with your MVP going to Kyle Davies (+.119 on Saturday). Buddy Carlyle had the only truly awful outing, getting shelled by the Red Sox for a -.404 WPA on Tuesday. Chuck James was off-and-on in two starts, but he made a pretty good showing against a good Tiger offense last night. Hudson and Smoltz weren’t at their best in one start each, and like everyone else, they’re probably glad to see the end of interleague play.
The relief corps got a bit of a shakeup when Macay McBride, one of the Georgia-native Baby Braves, was shipped to the Tigers for Wilfredo Ledezma (or I guess he actually stayed in Atlanta, since they were coming to town). I don’t think anyone was really excited about the deal one way or the other. The initial reaction I got from Braves fans is that we got a guy with similar control problems who is actually older and without minor league options. Tiger fans thought they shipped off a guy with decent stuff for a lower-ceiling guy who has completely lost whatever it was that made him a good prospect. Both are probably true, but hopefully the Braves can turn Ledezma into a useful bullpen spare part.
Villarreal, Paronto, and Moylan all provided solid innings out of the bullpen in the games that got away, while Wickman and Yates did the same in some of the closer ones. Soriano gave up a few runs in a blowout, but he still had a positive WPA for the week.
The team is now .500 for the season for the first time since opening day, and they’re now 4.5 games back of the Mets and 1.5 behind the Phillies for second place. The Marlins are two games behind the Braves now in fourth.
The Week Ahead
I’m hopeful that the Braves can right the ship against the Marlins and Nationals this week. They’ll get the Nats at the beginning of the week to finish this homestand before heading on a 9-game road trip heading into the All-Star break.
The probables:
Monday: Tim Hudson vs. Jason Bergmann
Tuesday: Buddy Carlyle vs. Mike Bacsik
Wednesday: John Smoltz vs. Micah Bowie
Friday: Kyle Davies vs. Josh Johnson
Saturday: Chuck James vs. Byung-Hyun Kim
Sunday: Tim Hudson vs. Dontrelle Willis
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