South Region Tracker

My final ranking of the Division-II South Region teams, through games of March 4, 2007:

3/4 2/28 3/4
My My Actual Team Conf Overall Region Conf.
1 1 1 Montevallo GSCE 22-5 18-2 11-1
2 2 Florida Gulf Coast IND 27-6 21-3 0-0
3 6 6 Eckerd SSC 25-5 20-4 15-4
4 3 3 Benedict SIAC 24-4 21-3 21-3
5 4 4 Barry SSC 23-6 20-5 14-4
6 5 2 Rollins SSC 24-6 17-4 15-4
7 9 5 Henderson State GSCW 22-8 17-6 12-3
8 7 Christian Brothers GSCW 21-7 16-6 10-5
9 8 7 Valdosta State GSCE 20-8 15-6 8-5
10 10 Harding GSCW 17-12 12-8 10-5
11 13 Fort Valley State SIAC 18-12 17-9 17-8
12 11 Delta State GSCW 18-10 13-9 8-6
13 12 Paine SIAC 17-10 15-8 15-8
14 14 North Alabama GSCE 15-14 15-12 7-6
15 15 Alabama-Huntsville GSCE 18-11 10-9 6-6
16 8 Albany State SIAC 16-15 16-13 16-10
17 16 Stillman SIAC 15-12 14-11 13-9
18 19 Miles SIAC 14-13 14-12 11-11
19 18 Tampa SSC 15-13 11-11 7-9
20 Kentucky State SIAC 15-15 13-12 13-12

Conference vs. Conference

I have separated Florida Gulf Coast from the rest of the independents below in order to give teams a little more credit for playing FGCU (a very good team) than the other independents (all very bad teams).

Team GSCE GSCW SIAC
vs. Opponent W L PCT W L PCT W L PCT
vs. GSCE 0 0 0.000 9 10 0.474 1 6 0.143
vs. GSCW 10 9 0.526 0 0 0.000 3 7 0.300
vs. SIAC 6 1 0.857 7 3 0.700 0 0 0.000
vs. SSC 10 5 0.667 2 1 0.667 0 0 0.000
vs. IND 6 1 0.857 3 1 0.750 1 0 1.000
vs. FGCU 2 2 0.500 0 2 0.000 0 4 0.000
Totals 34 18 0.654 21 17 0.553 5 17 0.227
Team SSC IND FGCU
vs. Opponent W L PCT W L PCT W L PCT
vs. GSCE 5 10 0.333 1 6 0.143 2 2 0.500
vs. GSCW 1 2 0.333 1 3 0.250 2 0 1.000
vs. SIAC 0 0 0.000 0 1 0.000 4 0 1.000
vs. SSC 0 0 0.000 1 24 0.040 5 1 0.833
vs. IND 24 1 0.960 0 0 0.000 8 0 1.000
vs. FGCU 1 5 0.167 0 8 0.000 0 0 0.000
Totals 31 18 0.633 3 42 0.067 21 3 0.875

Final Conference Tournament/Ranking Analysis

It looks like we had a shocker in the SIAC, which was about the worst possible situation for the GSC teams that were on the bubble.  The ridiculous SIAC regular season is so long that their teams (for the most part) don’t play credible in-region, non-conference games.  So, we had possibly overrated Benedict already a lock, and it was their job not to let any other SIAC teams in the NCAAs.  Alas, they failed, allowing 16-15 Albany State into the tournament field.

The question is, do we know which team is out because Albany is in?  My guess is that Christian Brothers would have made it instead.  In fact, they probably should have made it over Valdosta State, since they had a superior overall and in-region record, and they had a more consistently good season.  Really, Florida Gulf Coast should be the school that’s complaining over this one.  I think they’re possibly the second-best team in the region, but apparently their 21-3 in-region record as an independent wasn’t enough for an at-large berth.  Unless they’re on some sort of NCAA probation list (entirely possible), they should have been a lock.

As for the seeds, Montevallo is a deserving #1, but everything breaks down after that.  Rollins may only be the third best team in the SSC, but they got the #2 seed.  Benedict is an okay 3-seed, even though we have no idea how good they are, and Barry is a decent enough 4-seed.  Henderson State as a five seems pretty high to me; I guess they got bonus points for winning the division and reaching the GSC tournament final game.  Eckerd’s #6 seed is a bit low, since they could be the best team in the SSC, plus they won the conference tournament.  They’ll face Benedict in what might be an unlucky first-round matchup for them.  Valdosta State should not have been in the field, but they are the #7 seed.  Then we have fluke SIAC champ Albany State as the #8 seed, which should be a good way to reward Montevallo for a solid GSC run.

Last Week’s Games

Date Away Pts Home Pts
2/25 Flagler 59 Florida Gulf Coast 79
2/26 North Georgia College & State 62 Florida Gulf Coast 99
2/27 Central State 78 Florida Gulf Coast 82
2/28 Delta State 69 Alabama-Huntsville 74
2/28 West Georgia 86 Ouachita Baptist 72
2/28 Florida Southern 62 Florida Tech 64
2/28 LeMoyne-Owen 67 Lane 80
2/28 Clark Atlanta 43 Albany State 67
2/28 Tuskegee 85 Kentucky State 101
2/28 Morehouse 73 Miles 75
3/1 Lane 58 Benedict 84
3/1 Albany State 64 Stillman 58
3/2 Kentucky State 88 Paine 82
3/2 Miles 59 Fort Valley State 72
3/2 Tampa 55 Nova Southeastern 71
3/2 Florida Tech 65 Rollins 80
3/2 Saint Leo 45 Eckerd 76
3/2 Lynn 61 Barry 64
3/2 Alabama-Huntsville 59 Henderson State 70
3/2 Harding 73 Valdosta State 72
3/2 West Georgia 62 Montevallo 78
3/2 North Alabama 78 Christian Brothers 71
3/3 Nova Southeastern 49 Rollins 62
3/3 Eckerd 63 Barry 59
3/3 Albany State 73 Benedict 64
3/3 Kentucky State 70 Fort Valley State 86
3/3 Harding 71 Henderson State 76
3/3 North Alabama 71 Montevallo 98
3/4 Eckerd 67 Rollins 52
3/4 Albany State 54 Fort Valley State 50
3/4 Henderson State 52 Montevallo 66
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