Braves' homestand ends in a disappointing split

I asked last Friday if the Braves really were swept by the Reds, and it turns out that this actually happened.  After a split with the Cardinals, the Braves ended up dropping five of seven this week, finishing the homestand at 5-5.  The Marlins went on to take 3 of 4 from Cincy this weekend, and the Braves are now 3.5 games back in the division, 1.5 up on the Phillies for second place.

This Week’s Stats

Scores and FanGraphs summaries:

7/16: Reds 10, Braves 3
7/17: Reds 6, Braves 5
7/18: Reds 5, Braves 4
7/19: Braves 10, Cardinals 1
7/20: Cardinals 4, Braves 2
7/21: Braves 14, Cardinals 6
7/22: Cardinals 7, Braves 2

Stats for the week alone:

Hitting	PA	OPS	pLI	WPA	WPA/LI	Clutch	CP	pWPA	pWPA/LI	pClutch	pCP
Chipper Jones	34	1.188	1.17	+0.647	+0.518	+0.129	+0.044	+1.90	+1.52	+0.38	+0.13
Kelly Johnson	26	1.162	1.27	+0.139	+0.289	-0.150	-0.228	+0.53	+1.11	-0.58	-0.88
Matt Diaz	14	1.000	0.93	+0.036	+0.155	-0.119	-0.108	+0.26	+1.11	-0.85	-0.77
Buddy Carlyle	4	1.000	0.63	+0.026	+0.039	-0.013	+0.001	+0.65	+0.98	-0.33	+0.04
Yunel Escobar	13	0.558	0.52	+0.024	+0.053	-0.029	-0.004	+0.18	+0.41	-0.22	-0.03
Jo-Jo Reyes	6	0.667	0.98	+0.014	+0.002	+0.012	+0.012	+0.23	+0.03	+0.21	+0.21
Tim Hudson	3	0.000	0.15	-0.011	-0.050	+0.039	-0.003	-0.37	-1.68	+1.31	-0.12
Chris Woodward	4	0.250	0.36	-0.018	-0.036	+0.018	-0.005	-0.45	-0.90	+0.45	-0.13
Edgar Renteria	34	0.987	0.96	-0.023	+0.098	-0.121	-0.117	-0.07	+0.29	-0.36	-0.34
Chuck James	2	0.000	1.00	-0.051	-0.051	+0.000	-0.000	-2.55	-2.56	+0.01	-0.00
John Smoltz	2	0.000	1.08	-0.056	-0.052	-0.004	+0.000	-2.80	-2.60	-0.20	+0.00
Scott Thorman	11	0.573	0.79	-0.084	-0.075	-0.009	-0.025	-0.76	-0.68	-0.08	-0.22
Andruw Jones	34	0.801	1.21	-0.122	+0.092	-0.214	-0.234	-0.36	+0.27	-0.63	-0.69
Jeff Francoeur	32	0.845	1.25	-0.126	+0.229	-0.355	-0.414	-0.39	+0.72	-1.11	-1.29
Brian McCann	23	0.856	1.32	-0.137	+0.012	-0.149	-0.152	-0.60	+0.05	-0.65	-0.66
Kyle Davies	1	0.000	6.80	-0.176	-0.026	-0.150	+0.000	-17.60	-2.59	-15.01	+0.00
Julio Franco	13	0.237	1.03	-0.342	-0.172	-0.170	-0.166	-2.63	-1.32	-1.31	-1.27
Willie Harris	31	0.756	1.08	-0.400	-0.131	-0.269	-0.258	-1.29	-0.42	-0.87	-0.83
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23	0.399	1.45	-0.462	-0.234	-0.228	-0.123	-2.01	-1.02	-0.99	-0.54
Totals	310	0.806	1.12	-1.122	+0.659	-1.781	-1.779	-0.36	+0.21	-0.57	-0.57
Total Pitching	IP	ERA	pLI	WPA	WPA/LI	Clutch	CP	pWPA	pWPA/LI	pClutch	pCP
John Smoltz	7.0	0.00	1.04	+0.454	+0.329	+0.125	+0.113	+1.68	+1.22	+0.46	+0.42
Chuck James	7.0	1.29	1.34	+0.336	+0.135	+0.201	+0.155	+1.16	+0.47	+0.69	+0.54
Bob Wickman	2.0	0.00	2.76	+0.287	+0.073	+0.214	+0.086	+3.59	+0.91	+2.68	+1.07
Chad Paronto	5.0	1.80	0.75	+0.218	-0.014	+0.232	+0.229	+0.95	-0.06	+1.01	+0.99
Tim Hudson	7.0	1.29	0.45	+0.179	+0.340	-0.161	+0.025	+0.72	+1.36	-0.64	+0.10
Peter Moylan	4.3	4.15	0.59	+0.176	+0.004	+0.172	+0.174	+0.88	+0.02	+0.86	+0.87
Oscar Villarreal	5.7	6.35	0.81	+0.057	-0.021	+0.078	+0.074	+0.24	-0.09	+0.32	+0.31
Jo-Jo Reyes	11.7	3.86	1.09	+0.053	+0.211	-0.158	-0.176	+0.11	+0.42	-0.32	-0.35
Buddy Carlyle	6.0	4.50	0.53	+0.051	+0.030	+0.021	+0.035	+0.21	+0.13	+0.09	+0.15
Wil Ledezma	2.0	9.00	0.09	-0.001	-0.086	+0.085	+0.007	-0.01	-0.72	+0.71	+0.06
Joey Devine	1.0	9.00	0.43	-0.030	-0.036	+0.006	-0.015	-0.50	-0.60	+0.10	-0.24
Jose Ascanio	4.0	0.00	1.90	-0.255	+0.150	-0.405	-0.541	-1.50	+0.88	-2.38	-3.18
Kyle Davies	0.0	#DIV/0!	1.46	-0.302	-0.205	-0.097	-0.002	-6.04	-4.11	-1.93	-0.04
Tyler Yates	3.3	13.50	1.72	-0.735	-0.187	-0.548	-0.413	-4.32	-1.10	-3.22	-2.43
Rafael Soriano	4.0	11.25	1.10	-0.868	-0.481	-0.387	-0.340	-4.34	-2.40	-1.94	-1.70
Totals	70.0	4.11	1.01	-0.380	+0.243	-0.623	-0.591	-0.12	+0.08	-0.20	-0.19
Relief Pitching	G	IP	TBF	gmLI	G/T	tG/T	USG
Bob Wickman	2	2.0	8	2.38	2.04	1.66	-0.38
Jose Ascanio	2	4.0	17	1.21	1.04	1.65	0.61
Peter Moylan	4	4.3	20	0.97	0.83	1.21	0.38
Chad Paronto	3	5.0	23	0.98	0.84	1.17	0.33
Oscar Villarreal	4	5.7	24	1.13	0.97	1.16	0.19
Joey Devine	1	1.0	6	0.39	0.33	0.90	0.57
Wil Ledezma	2	2.0	12	0.02	0.01	0.84	0.83
Tyler Yates	4	3.3	17	1.21	1.03	0.65	-0.38
Rafael Soriano	4	4.0	20	1.64	1.40	0.00	-1.40
Totals	26	31.3	147	1.17			15

Season totals:

Hitting	PA	OPS	pLI	WPA	WPA/LI	Clutch	CP	pWPA	pWPA/LI	pClutch	pCP
Chipper Jones	336	1.037	1.00	+2.076	+2.356	-0.280	-0.274	+0.62	+0.70	-0.08	-0.08
Kelly Johnson	381	0.876	0.93	+1.848	+1.905	-0.057	+0.070	+0.49	+0.50	-0.01	+0.02
Edgar Renteria	419	0.878	0.95	+1.563	+1.717	-0.154	-0.066	+0.37	+0.41	-0.04	-0.02
Yunel Escobar	133	0.718	0.95	+1.310	+0.409	+0.901	+0.920	+0.98	+0.31	+0.68	+0.69
Willie Harris	212	0.828	0.98	+0.559	+0.276	+0.283	+0.288	+0.26	+0.13	+0.13	+0.14
Brian McCann	317	0.782	1.07	+0.328	-0.639	+0.967	+1.011	+0.10	-0.20	+0.30	+0.32
Jeff Francoeur	422	0.764	0.98	+0.234	-0.262	+0.496	+0.491	+0.06	-0.06	+0.12	+0.12
Matt Diaz	223	0.850	0.90	+0.016	+0.696	-0.680	-0.614	+0.01	+0.31	-0.30	-0.28
Tyler Yates	1	0.000	0.03	-0.001	-0.033	+0.032	+0.000	-0.10	-3.33	+3.23	+0.00
Jo-Jo Reyes	8	0.583	1.05	-0.006	-0.013	+0.007	+0.007	-0.08	-0.16	+0.08	+0.09
Lance Cormier	2	0.500	0.58	-0.017	+0.008	-0.025	-0.021	-0.85	+0.39	-1.24	-1.07
Peter Moylan	4	0.250	0.69	-0.047	-0.051	+0.004	-0.012	-1.18	-1.28	+0.10	-0.30
Anthony Lerew	3	0.000	0.88	-0.072	-0.081	+0.009	-0.001	-2.40	-2.70	+0.30	-0.02
Oscar Villarreal	3	0.000	0.81	-0.077	-0.087	+0.010	-0.006	-2.57	-2.91	+0.35	-0.20
Mark Redman	6	0.167	1.05	-0.103	-0.090	-0.013	-0.009	-1.72	-1.50	-0.21	-0.15
Buddy Carlyle	23	0.280	0.94	-0.122	-0.247	+0.125	+0.111	-0.53	-1.08	+0.55	+0.48
Martin Prado	30	0.412	0.93	-0.240	-0.286	+0.046	+0.026	-0.80	-0.95	+0.15	+0.09
Julio Franco	13	0.237	1.03	-0.342	-0.172	-0.170	-0.166	-2.63	-1.32	-1.31	-1.27
Chuck James	42	0.403	0.87	-0.440	-0.482	+0.042	-0.020	-1.05	-1.15	+0.10	-0.05
Craig Wilson	69	0.563	0.93	-0.441	-0.345	-0.096	-0.119	-0.64	-0.50	-0.14	-0.17
Tim Hudson	48	0.441	0.78	-0.472	-0.407	-0.065	-0.155	-0.98	-0.85	-0.13	-0.32
Brayan Pena	23	0.565	1.42	-0.507	-0.304	-0.203	-0.076	-2.20	-1.32	-0.88	-0.33
John Smoltz	34	0.231	0.77	-0.513	-0.600	+0.087	-0.052	-1.51	-1.76	+0.26	-0.15
Kyle Davies	30	0.579	1.05	-0.516	-0.162	-0.354	-0.347	-1.72	-0.54	-1.18	-1.16
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	149	0.752	1.08	-0.517	-0.208	-0.309	-0.293	-0.35	-0.14	-0.21	-0.20
Pete Orr	58	0.403	0.59	-0.598	-0.549	-0.049	-0.271	-1.03	-0.95	-0.08	-0.47
Ryan Langerhans	52	0.283	0.88	-0.737	-0.946	+0.209	+0.097	-1.42	-1.82	+0.40	+0.19
Scott Thorman	265	0.641	0.91	-0.788	-0.451	-0.337	-0.378	-0.30	-0.17	-0.13	-0.14
Andruw Jones	421	0.748	1.09	-0.841	-0.276	-0.565	-0.539	-0.20	-0.07	-0.13	-0.13
Chris Woodward	112	0.552	1.01	-0.893	-0.842	-0.051	-0.043	-0.80	-0.75	-0.05	-0.04
Totals	3839	0.761	0.98	-0.356	-0.166	-0.190	-0.439	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01
Total Pitching	IP	ERA	pLI	WPA	WPA/LI	Clutch	CP	pWPA	pWPA/LI	pClutch	pCP
Peter Moylan	52.0	2.25	0.63	+1.564	+0.544	+1.020	+1.222	+0.74	+0.26	+0.48	+0.58
John Smoltz	112.7	2.88	1.10	+1.470	+1.455	+0.015	-0.129	+0.31	+0.31	+0.00	-0.03
Chuck James	110.7	3.58	1.03	+1.456	+0.507	+0.949	+0.934	+0.30	+0.11	+0.20	+0.19
Tim Hudson	136.0	3.24	0.96	+1.337	+2.280	-0.943	-0.849	+0.24	+0.41	-0.17	-0.15
Rafael Soriano	43.0	3.77	1.16	+1.169	+0.646	+0.523	+0.418	+0.70	+0.38	+0.31	+0.25
Mike Gonzalez	17.0	1.06	0.99	+0.738	+0.413	+0.325	+0.331	+1.05	+0.59	+0.46	+0.47
Buddy Carlyle	60.0	4.05	0.84	+0.288	+0.644	-0.356	-0.255	+0.12	+0.27	-0.15	-0.11
Macay McBride	15.0	4.20	0.35	+0.122	-0.050	+0.172	+0.139	+0.16	-0.07	+0.23	+0.19
Chad Paronto	37.3	3.86	0.63	+0.080	-0.421	+0.501	+0.344	+0.05	-0.25	+0.30	+0.21
Blaine Boyer	5.3	3.38	0.44	+0.062	-0.098	+0.160	+0.105	+0.24	-0.38	+0.61	+0.40
Tyler Yates	42.3	5.32	0.98	+0.049	+0.053	-0.004	-0.003	+0.03	+0.03	-0.00	-0.00
Wil Ledezma	9.0	7.00	0.46	-0.001	-0.131	+0.130	+0.060	-0.00	-0.32	+0.32	+0.15
Kevin Barry	2.0	22.50	0.02	-0.007	-0.230	+0.223	-0.003	-0.05	-1.64	+1.59	-0.02
Joey Devine	3.0	3.00	0.20	-0.023	+0.035	-0.058	-0.030	-0.16	+0.25	-0.42	-0.22
Bob Wickman	34.0	4.24	1.98	-0.079	+0.052	-0.131	-0.181	-0.05	+0.03	-0.08	-0.12
Jose Ascanio	5.0	1.80	1.41	-0.255	+0.150	-0.405	-0.467	-1.11	+0.65	-1.76	-2.03
Anthony Lerew	11.7	7.71	0.88	-0.343	-0.534	+0.191	+0.126	-0.60	-0.94	+0.34	+0.22
Jo-Jo Reyes	14.7	6.14	1.10	-0.350	-0.170	-0.180	-0.163	-0.54	-0.26	-0.28	-0.25
Oscar Villarreal	54.3	3.98	0.64	-0.352	+0.125	-0.477	-0.432	-0.15	+0.05	-0.21	-0.19
Steve Colyer	3.7	4.91	0.98	-0.537	-0.309	-0.228	-0.235	-2.44	-1.40	-1.04	-1.07
Lance Cormier	7.7	15.26	0.76	-0.633	-1.051	+0.418	+0.165	-1.51	-2.50	+0.99	+0.39
Mark Redman	21.7	11.63	0.94	-1.293	-1.239	-0.054	-0.132	-1.11	-1.07	-0.05	-0.11
Kyle Davies	86.0	5.76	0.98	-1.659	-1.037	-0.622	-0.640	-0.43	-0.27	-0.16	-0.16
Totals	884.0	4.18	0.95	+2.803	+1.635	+1.168	+0.325	+0.07	+0.04	+0.03	+0.01
Relief Pitching	G	IP	TBF	gmLI	G/T	tG/T	USG
Jose Ascanio	3	5.0	23	0.81	0.80	1.36	0.56
Mike Gonzalez	18	17.0	70	1.04	1.03	1.32	0.29
Rafael Soriano	45	43.0	168	1.47	1.46	1.20	-0.26
Buddy Carlyle	1	1.0	4	0.58	0.57	1.13	0.55
Peter Moylan	42	52.0	211	0.73	0.72	1.12	0.40
Joey Devine	3	3.0	14	0.17	0.17	1.12	0.95
Oscar Villarreal	35	54.3	230	0.83	0.82	1.00	0.18
Bob Wickman	38	34.0	156	1.58	1.56	0.99	-0.57
Tyler Yates	47	42.3	187	1.10	1.09	0.99	-0.10
Macay McBride	18	15.0	75	0.66	0.65	0.93	0.28
Chad Paronto	38	37.3	167	0.74	0.74	0.82	0.09
Wil Ledezma	10	9.0	41	0.52	0.51	0.78	0.27
Blaine Boyer	5	5.3	26	0.44	0.43	0.75	0.32
Mark Redman	1	1.3	10	0.45	0.45	0.34	-0.11
Steve Colyer	7	3.7	22	1.01	1.00	0.14	-0.86
Kevin Barry	1	2.0	14	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.03
Totals	312	325.3	1418	1.01			91

Best plays of the week:

1. Chipper Jones doubled off David Weathers, scoring Edgar Renteria and tying Wednesday’s game at 3 in the 10th inning (+.470).
2. Pete Moylan induced a double-play ball from Scott Rolen, ending the sixth inning of yesterday’s game with a 2-1 lead still intact (+.186).
3. Jose Ascanio struck out Ryan Freel with runners at the corners and one out in the 15th inning of Wednesday’s game (+.184).
4. Andruw Jones hit a 2-run homer off Mike Maroth in the first inning of Thursday’s blowout win (+.180).
5. Brian McCann singled off Aaron Harang in the 8th inning of Wednesday’s game, advancing Andruw Jones to third with one out and the Braves down 2-1 (+.176).

Comments

One great game does not a great week make, as we should all learn about Willie Harris’ much-heralded 6-for-6 game on Saturday.  His WPA was +.227 for the game, but -.400 for the entire week.  You can chalk some of that up to poor clutch play, but his OPS was just .756 for the week, and he was only 1-for-4 on the basepaths.  He ended up second from the bottom in hitting WPA this week, with only Salty behind him at -.462.

Now that Harris’ inevitable plunge toward mediocrity is in full swing, is it time for the Free Matt Diaz campaign to begin?  His OPS is already higher, and despite the best efforts of Bobby Cox, he doesn’t have trouble against right-handed pitching.  Perhaps he’s not as good as Harris defensively, but 1+ years of great hitting should be enough to give him a full-time role.

Back to this week’s stats, Chipper had the only truly outstanding week at the plate, throwing up a 1.188 OPS in 34 PAs.  He added a dash of positive clutch play (a change of pace for him this year) and finished the week with a +.647.  He is now the team’s leader in both WPA (+2.076) and leverage-neutral WPA (WPA/LI, +2.356).

Kelly Johnson, who is immediately behind Chipper on the batting leaderboard, had another solid week despite his reduced role.  He’s still striking out a ton (22% of ABs, leading the team), but he’s having a great year with an outstanding .291/.391/.485 hitting line at second base.

Johnson’s platoon counterpart Yunel Escobar was among the five or so mediocre regulars this week, along with Diaz (still hitting .353/.372/.478) and Renteria, whose solid .987 OPS was diluted a bit by poor clutch play.  Thorman, Andruw, McCann and Francoeur all finished in the vicinity of -.1 WPA, with Jones and Francoeur looking the best in the traditional stat categories.  The former had ten hits, and the latter two homers.

Julio Franco got off to a positively unimpressive start, with a single hit and a walk in 13 PAs.  On a per-at-bat basis, he was the worst Brave this week with at least ten trips to the plate.   If he’s going to be taking at bats from Salty, I don’t want any part of this.  Hopefully his signing is a precursor to another move, preferably for a starting pitcher and perhaps involving Scott Thorman as part of the deal.

As for the Braves’ current staff, there were five solid starts out of seven this week, which isn’t bad when you look at who was starting.  Yes, Kyle Davies finally pitched himself out of the rotation with Monday’s “start,” and Jo-Jo was only half-good, but the trio of Smoltz, Hudson and James were great, and Carlyle was adequate.  Smoltz made perhaps his best start of the year in Wednesday’s gut-wrenching game, and James and Hudson allowed just two runs in 14 innings.

The bullpen was another story entirely.  Wickman maintained his grip on the closer’s role with 2 solid innings, but that was about it for solid performances from this worn-out group of players.  Yates, Soriano, and Ledezma were all awful.  Villarreal and Moylan were as hittable as ever.  Devine pitched a single nerve-wracking inning.  Ascanio couldn’t pitch around a Kelly Johnson error (a fact that is not picked up in the WPA numbers, by the way).  Paronto managed to put together five nervous innings of one-run ball, but I wouldn’t expect that to continue.

The problem with the bullpen is tough to pin on the bullpen pitchers themselves, because they’ve been overworked all year as a result of inconsistent starting pitching.  I can’t say for sure that Yates and Soriano have regressed, so much as I can say that they’re dead tired.  I suppose this makes Moylan’s 2.25 ERA in 52 innings that much more impressive given the circumstances, and it’s no coincidence that he is now the leader in pitching WPA.  Hudson still has a commanding lead in WPA/LI, and there shouldn’t be much question that he has been the most valuable pitcher up to this point.

The Road Ahead

This is the week we’ve all been waiting for.  The Braves travel to San Francisco for four games, with Bonds three homers shy of breaking Hank Aaron’s record.  I’ll go on the record hoping they pitch around him every time he comes up, since the Giants have otherwise been a mess offensively.  I might shed a tear if Bonds actually does break this record against the Braves.  Here are the pitching matchups for the week, which will end with a weekend in Arizona:

Monday: Smoltz vs. Matt Cain
Tuesday: Hudson vs. Matt Morris
Wednesday: James vs. Noah Lowry
Thursday: Carlyle vs. Tim Lincecum
Friday: Reyes vs. Yusmeiro Petit
Saturday: Smoltz vs. Doug Davis
Sunday: Hudson vs. [future Brave?] Livan Hernandez

The D-Backs have played over their heads all year, and the Giants just aren’t very good, so I’m hoping for a winning week.  Just don’t give Bob Wickman the ball (8.31 road ERA), and everything should be fine.

One last important note

In a remarkable tragedy, Tulsa Drillers (AA-Colorado) coach Mike Coolbaugh was killed by a line drive during yesterday’s game against the Arkansas Travelers in Little Rock.  I’m honestly surprised this hasn’t happened more often than it does, but there’s no escaping that this was a terrible event for his family, his team, the opposing hitter, and everyone in attendance who witnessed it.   Coolbaugh and his brother played in the minors during my heyday of attending Chattanooga Lookouts games, and I remember seeing him play, probably on more than one occasion.  Times like this make you rethink your devotion to a game in which hundreds of people place themselves in danger on a daily basis.

h/t: jz