Fantasy drafting took up pretty much all of my time yesterday, so I didn’t get the chance to update the stats as I had expected. Today’s post should rectify that.
That big “whoosh” sound you might have heard in Atlanta over the weekend must have been the Braves falling in the standings, as they dropped all the way to 7.5 games back in the division and 5.5 in the wild card. That’s third place behind the Mets and Phillies in the East, and fifth behind the D-Backs, Phillies, Dodgers, and Rockies in the WC. I’ll go ahead and include last night’s win over the Phillies in the stats below so that I don’t have to cover the same ground twice.
This Week’s Stats
Scores and FanGraphs game summaries:
8/27: Braves 13, Marlins 2
8/28: Marlins 4, Braves 3
8/29: Braves 7, Marlins 4
8/31: Mets 7, Braves 1
9/1: Mets 5, Braves 1
9/2: Mets 3, Braves 2
9/3: Braves 5, Phillies 1
Stats for the week alone:
| Hitting | PA | OPS | pLI | WPA | WPA/LI | Clutch | CP | pWPA | pWPA/LI | pClutch | pCP |
| Matt Diaz | 27 | 1.319 | 1.06 | +0.247 | +0.578 | -0.331 | -0.365 | +0.91 | +2.14 | -1.23 | -1.35 |
| Chipper Jones | 30 | 0.828 | 0.99 | +0.214 | +0.065 | +0.149 | +0.150 | +0.71 | +0.22 | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Yunel Escobar | 29 | 1.032 | 0.91 | +0.165 | +0.308 | -0.143 | -0.116 | +0.57 | +1.06 | -0.49 | -0.40 |
| Brayan Pena | 1 | 2.000 | 1.13 | +0.064 | +0.057 | +0.007 | +0.000 | +6.40 | +5.66 | +0.74 | +0.00 |
| Andruw Jones | 28 | 0.690 | 1.05 | +0.038 | -0.024 | +0.062 | +0.063 | +0.14 | -0.09 | +0.22 | +0.23 |
| Jo-Jo Reyes | 1 | 0.000 | 0.00 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.000 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Scott Thorman | 4 | 0.833 | 1.43 | -0.003 | -0.015 | +0.012 | +0.018 | -0.08 | -0.37 | +0.29 | +0.45 |
| Chuck James | 1 | 0.000 | 0.50 | -0.013 | -0.026 | +0.013 | +0.000 | -1.30 | -2.60 | +1.30 | +0.00 |
| Pete Orr | 2 | 1.000 | 3.07 | -0.026 | +0.041 | -0.067 | -0.152 | -1.30 | +2.05 | -3.35 | -7.59 |
| Corky Miller | 6 | 0.333 | 0.96 | -0.029 | -0.012 | -0.017 | -0.018 | -0.48 | -0.20 | -0.29 | -0.29 |
| Tim Hudson | 1 | 0.000 | 1.55 | -0.037 | -0.024 | -0.013 | +0.000 | -3.70 | -2.39 | -1.31 | +0.00 |
| Buddy Carlyle | 3 | 0.000 | 0.80 | -0.064 | -0.080 | +0.016 | +0.000 | -2.13 | -2.67 | +0.53 | +0.00 |
| Lance Cormier | 6 | 0.000 | 0.49 | -0.072 | -0.119 | +0.047 | -0.014 | -1.20 | -1.98 | +0.78 | -0.24 |
| Chris Woodward | 11 | 0.364 | 0.87 | -0.087 | -0.045 | -0.042 | -0.048 | -0.79 | -0.41 | -0.38 | -0.43 |
| Julio Franco | 2 | 0.000 | 1.90 | -0.091 | -0.049 | -0.042 | +0.001 | -4.55 | -2.44 | -2.11 | +0.06 |
| Kelly Johnson | 26 | 0.755 | 1.10 | -0.098 | -0.087 | -0.011 | -0.003 | -0.38 | -0.34 | -0.04 | -0.01 |
| John Smoltz | 4 | 0.000 | 1.32 | -0.133 | -0.098 | -0.035 | -0.004 | -3.33 | -2.45 | -0.87 | -0.09 |
| Mark Teixeira | 31 | 0.776 | 1.01 | -0.142 | -0.176 | +0.034 | +0.036 | -0.46 | -0.57 | +0.11 | +0.12 |
| Brian McCann | 25 | 0.880 | 1.16 | -0.183 | -0.022 | -0.161 | -0.158 | -0.73 | -0.09 | -0.64 | -0.63 |
| Jeff Francoeur | 30 | 0.483 | 1.04 | -0.230 | -0.159 | -0.071 | -0.064 | -0.77 | -0.53 | -0.24 | -0.21 |
| Willie Harris | 10 | 0.100 | 1.12 | -0.285 | -0.234 | -0.051 | -0.022 | -2.85 | -2.34 | -0.51 | -0.22 |
| Totals | 278 | 0.739 | 1.04 | -0.765 | -0.122 | -0.643 | -0.694 | -0.28 | -0.04 | -0.23 | -0.25 |
| Total Pitching | IP | ERA | pLI | WPA | WPA/LI | Clutch | CP | pWPA | pWPA/LI | pClutch | pCP |
| Ron Mahay | 4.7 | 0.00 | 0.92 | +0.231 | +0.123 | +0.108 | +0.118 | +1.36 | +0.72 | +0.64 | +0.70 |
| Peter Moylan | 5.3 | 0.00 | 0.71 | +0.229 | +0.232 | -0.003 | +0.066 | +1.21 | +1.22 | -0.01 | +0.35 |
| Tyler Yates | 3.3 | 2.70 | 1.28 | +0.177 | +0.045 | +0.132 | +0.120 | +1.26 | +0.32 | +0.94 | +0.86 |
| Lance Cormier | 12.7 | 2.13 | 0.65 | +0.167 | +0.343 | -0.176 | -0.055 | +0.33 | +0.69 | -0.35 | -0.11 |
| Manuel Acosta | 4.0 | 2.25 | 0.68 | +0.091 | +0.078 | +0.013 | +0.037 | +0.61 | +0.52 | +0.09 | +0.25 |
| Rafael Soriano | 2.3 | 0.00 | 0.46 | +0.083 | +0.173 | -0.090 | +0.003 | +1.19 | +2.47 | -1.29 | +0.04 |
| Buddy Carlyle | 5.0 | 5.40 | 0.89 | -0.022 | -0.196 | +0.174 | +0.153 | -0.10 | -0.89 | +0.79 | +0.70 |
| Jose Ascanio | 1.0 | 27.00 | 0.20 | -0.032 | -0.076 | +0.044 | -0.017 | -0.46 | -1.09 | +0.63 | -0.24 |
| Chuck James | 5.0 | 5.40 | 0.73 | -0.070 | -0.145 | +0.075 | +0.036 | -0.39 | -0.81 | +0.42 | +0.20 |
| John Smoltz | 13.0 | 4.15 | 0.92 | -0.083 | +0.098 | -0.181 | -0.174 | -0.15 | +0.18 | -0.34 | -0.32 |
| Tim Hudson | 6.0 | 6.00 | 0.73 | -0.145 | -0.076 | -0.069 | -0.089 | -0.63 | -0.33 | -0.30 | -0.39 |
| Oscar Villarreal | 1.7 | 5.40 | 1.84 | -0.357 | -0.101 | -0.256 | -0.171 | -3.97 | -1.12 | -2.84 | -1.90 |
| Totals | 64.0 | 3.52 | 0.82 | +0.269 | +0.498 | -0.229 | +0.028 | +0.11 | +0.20 | -0.09 | +0.01 |
| Relief Pitching | G | IP | TBF | gmLI | G/T | tG/T | USG | SV | EO | EOC | EO% |
| Tyler Yates | 4 | 3.3 | 14 | 0.83 | 0.99 | 1.44 | 0.45 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| Ron Mahay | 5 | 4.7 | 17 | 0.89 | 1.05 | 1.35 | 0.30 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| Jose Ascanio | 1 | 1.0 | 7 | 0.16 | 0.19 | 1.11 | 0.92 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Manuel Acosta | 3 | 4.0 | 15 | 0.95 | 1.12 | 1.00 | -0.13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Peter Moylan | 5 | 5.3 | 19 | 0.85 | 1.01 | 0.94 | -0.07 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| Rafael Soriano | 2 | 2.3 | 7 | 0.60 | 0.71 | 0.61 | -0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Oscar Villarreal | 2 | 1.7 | 9 | 1.16 | 1.37 | 0.00 | -1.37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Totals | 22 | 22.3 | 88 | 0.84 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 75% |
Season totals:
| Hitting | PA | OPS | pLI | WPA | WPA/LI | Clutch | CP | pWPA | pWPA/LI | pClutch | pCP |
| Chipper Jones | 507 | 0.994 | 1.03 | +2.875 | +3.245 | -0.370 | -0.464 | +0.57 | +0.64 | -0.07 | -0.09 |
| Yunel Escobar | 279 | 0.806 | 0.97 | +2.177 | +0.945 | +1.232 | +1.263 | +0.78 | +0.34 | +0.44 | +0.45 |
| Kelly Johnson | 535 | 0.869 | 0.97 | +1.718 | +2.369 | -0.651 | -0.571 | +0.32 | +0.44 | -0.12 | -0.11 |
| Edgar Renteria | 463 | 0.878 | 0.96 | +1.524 | +1.929 | -0.405 | -0.321 | +0.33 | +0.42 | -0.09 | -0.07 |
| Mark Teixeira | 141 | 1.031 | 1.04 | +1.028 | +0.691 | +0.337 | +0.310 | +0.73 | +0.49 | +0.24 | +0.22 |
| Matt Diaz | 323 | 0.909 | 0.96 | +0.895 | +1.700 | -0.805 | -0.732 | +0.28 | +0.53 | -0.25 | -0.23 |
| Brian McCann | 471 | 0.790 | 1.05 | +0.372 | -0.674 | +1.046 | +1.079 | +0.08 | -0.14 | +0.22 | +0.23 |
| Corky Miller | 18 | 0.572 | 1.00 | +0.065 | -0.019 | +0.084 | +0.084 | +0.36 | -0.11 | +0.47 | +0.47 |
| Willie Harris | 341 | 0.780 | 1.01 | +0.020 | -0.181 | +0.201 | +0.204 | +0.01 | -0.05 | +0.06 | +0.06 |
| Tyler Yates | 1 | 0.000 | 0.03 | -0.001 | -0.033 | +0.032 | +0.000 | -0.10 | -3.33 | +3.23 | +0.00 |
| Peter Moylan | 5 | 0.200 | 0.55 | -0.047 | -0.051 | +0.004 | -0.019 | -0.94 | -1.02 | +0.08 | -0.38 |
| Oscar Villarreal | 5 | 0.450 | 1.24 | -0.053 | -0.085 | +0.032 | +0.052 | -1.06 | -1.69 | +0.63 | +1.04 |
| Jo-Jo Reyes | 14 | 0.464 | 1.09 | -0.100 | -0.095 | -0.005 | +0.003 | -0.71 | -0.68 | -0.04 | +0.02 |
| Tim Hudson | 71 | 0.530 | 0.74 | -0.193 | -0.308 | +0.115 | +0.036 | -0.27 | -0.43 | +0.16 | +0.05 |
| Lance Cormier | 14 | 0.071 | 0.66 | -0.224 | -0.270 | +0.046 | -0.047 | -1.60 | -1.93 | +0.33 | -0.34 |
| Julio Franco | 43 | 0.618 | 1.07 | -0.403 | -0.120 | -0.283 | -0.275 | -0.94 | -0.28 | -0.66 | -0.64 |
| Buddy Carlyle | 38 | 0.226 | 0.87 | -0.418 | -0.628 | +0.210 | +0.129 | -1.10 | -1.65 | +0.55 | +0.34 |
| Brayan Pena | 24 | 0.625 | 1.41 | -0.443 | -0.247 | -0.196 | -0.095 | -1.85 | -1.03 | -0.82 | -0.40 |
| Jeff Francoeur | 597 | 0.777 | 0.98 | -0.498 | -0.513 | +0.015 | +0.005 | -0.08 | -0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Pete Orr | 60 | 0.424 | 0.71 | -0.624 | -0.508 | -0.116 | -0.262 | -1.04 | -0.85 | -0.19 | -0.44 |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 153 | 0.745 | 1.11 | -0.711 | -0.273 | -0.438 | -0.408 | -0.46 | -0.18 | -0.29 | -0.27 |
| Chuck James | 53 | 0.310 | 0.91 | -0.738 | -0.715 | -0.023 | -0.085 | -1.39 | -1.35 | -0.04 | -0.16 |
| John Smoltz | 57 | 0.199 | 0.88 | -0.765 | -0.927 | +0.162 | +0.054 | -1.34 | -1.63 | +0.28 | +0.09 |
| Chris Woodward | 145 | 0.511 | 1.04 | -0.966 | -1.129 | +0.163 | +0.206 | -0.67 | -0.78 | +0.11 | +0.14 |
| Scott Thorman | 293 | 0.646 | 0.91 | -1.338 | -0.822 | -0.516 | -0.587 | -0.46 | -0.28 | -0.18 | -0.20 |
| Andruw Jones | 576 | 0.745 | 1.07 | -1.888 | -0.804 | -1.084 | -1.027 | -0.33 | -0.14 | -0.19 | -0.18 |
| Totals | 5433 | 0.776 | 0.99 | -0.616 | +0.885 | -1.501 | -1.883 | -0.01 | +0.02 | -0.03 | -0.03 |
| Total Pitching | IP | ERA | pLI | WPA | WPA/LI | Clutch | CP | pWPA | pWPA/LI | pClutch | pCP |
| Peter Moylan | 77.0 | 1.87 | 0.77 | +2.358 | +1.372 | +0.986 | +1.299 | +0.77 | +0.45 | +0.32 | +0.42 |
| John Smoltz | 174.7 | 3.09 | 1.04 | +1.774 | +2.032 | -0.258 | -0.348 | +0.24 | +0.28 | -0.04 | -0.05 |
| Tim Hudson | 189.7 | 3.32 | 0.92 | +1.715 | +2.922 | -1.207 | -0.987 | +0.22 | +0.38 | -0.16 | -0.13 |
| Rafael Soriano | 60.0 | 3.45 | 1.19 | +1.666 | +1.013 | +0.653 | +0.465 | +0.72 | +0.44 | +0.28 | +0.20 |
| Chuck James | 141.3 | 4.27 | 1.01 | +0.692 | -0.399 | +1.091 | +1.097 | +0.11 | -0.07 | +0.18 | +0.18 |
| Tyler Yates | 59.3 | 4.85 | 1.09 | +0.600 | +0.167 | +0.433 | +0.417 | +0.23 | +0.06 | +0.16 | +0.16 |
| Manuel Acosta | 11.7 | 0.77 | 0.61 | +0.360 | +0.465 | -0.105 | +0.077 | +0.84 | +1.08 | -0.24 | +0.18 |
| Ron Mahay | 17.7 | 1.53 | 1.28 | +0.133 | +0.219 | -0.086 | -0.146 | +0.19 | +0.31 | -0.12 | -0.21 |
| Royce Ring | 0.7 | 0.00 | 0.25 | +0.034 | +0.134 | -0.100 | +0.001 | +1.70 | +6.68 | -4.98 | +0.06 |
| Chad Paronto | 40.3 | 3.57 | 0.63 | -0.120 | -0.364 | +0.244 | +0.111 | -0.07 | -0.20 | +0.14 | +0.06 |
| Jose Ascanio | 9.0 | 4.00 | 0.86 | -0.273 | +0.104 | -0.377 | -0.362 | -0.67 | +0.25 | -0.92 | -0.88 |
| Oscar Villarreal | 72.3 | 4.11 | 0.78 | -0.336 | -0.133 | -0.203 | -0.232 | -0.11 | -0.04 | -0.06 | -0.07 |
| Bob Wickman | 43.7 | 3.92 | 2.05 | -0.472 | -0.173 | -0.299 | -0.117 | -0.23 | -0.08 | -0.15 | -0.06 |
| Buddy Carlyle | 95.0 | 5.02 | 0.88 | -0.830 | -0.042 | -0.788 | -0.793 | -0.21 | -0.01 | -0.19 | -0.20 |
| Lance Cormier | 37.7 | 6.69 | 0.78 | -0.855 | -0.999 | +0.144 | -0.078 | -0.50 | -0.58 | +0.08 | -0.05 |
| Jo-Jo Reyes | 30.3 | 8.31 | 1.02 | -1.359 | -1.145 | -0.214 | -0.186 | -0.94 | -0.79 | -0.15 | -0.13 |
| Kyle Davies | 86.0 | 5.76 | 0.98 | -1.659 | -1.037 | -0.622 | -0.640 | -0.43 | -0.27 | -0.16 | -0.16 |
| Totals | 1241.3 | 4.18 | 0.97 | +1.613 | +1.686 | -0.073 | -0.391 | +0.03 | +0.03 | -0.00 | -0.01 |
| Relief Pitching | G | IP | TBF | gmLI | G/T | tG/T | USG | SV | EO | EOC | EO% |
| Peter Moylan | 65 | 77.0 | 307 | 0.83 | 0.80 | 1.71 | 0.91 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 100% |
| Rafael Soriano | 60 | 60.0 | 231 | 1.39 | 1.35 | 1.39 | 0.04 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 73% |
| Tyler Yates | 67 | 59.3 | 264 | 1.06 | 1.03 | 1.18 | 0.15 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 60% |
| Chad Paronto | 41 | 40.3 | 180 | 0.82 | 0.79 | 0.99 | 0.20 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 40% |
| Ron Mahay | 17 | 17.7 | 70 | 1.11 | 1.07 | 0.68 | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 50% |
| Royce Ring | 1 | 0.7 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 0.66 | 0.40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Manuel Acosta | 9 | 11.7 | 43 | 0.77 | 0.75 | 0.66 | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| Oscar Villarreal | 48 | 72.3 | 314 | 1.01 | 0.98 | 0.56 | -0.41 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 64% |
| Bob Wickman | 49 | 43.7 | 204 | 1.60 | 1.55 | 0.47 | -1.08 | 20 | 11 | 15 | 73% |
| Jose Ascanio | 7 | 9.0 | 41 | 0.41 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Buddy Carlyle | 1 | 1.0 | 4 | 0.58 | 0.56 | 0.00 | -0.56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Totals | 437 | 455.7 | 1965 | 1.03 | 178 | 34 | 52 | 76 | 68% |
Best plays of the week:
- Chipper Jones hit a 2-run homer off Armando Benitez, tying Tuesday’s game at 3 in the 8th inning (+.292).
- Matt Diaz hit a 2-run homer off Dontrelle Willis, giving the Braves a 4-2 lead in the 3rd inning of Wednesday’s game (+.169).
- Brian McCann hit a 2-run double off Jamie Moyer, giving the Braves a 2-1 lead and leaving runners on second and third in the 4th inning of yesterday’s game (+.165).
- John Smoltz induced a double play ball from Paul Lo Duca, ending the 4th inning of Sunday’s game and preserving a 1-1 tie (+.140).
- Kelly Johnson singled in Chris Woodward, cutting the Mets’ lead to 3-2 in the bottom of the ninth inning on Sunday (+.137).
Comments
Most of the Braves’ hitters were close to neutral last week. Only Matt Diaz had a great week on paper, going 9-for-24 with three walks, three homers, and a couple of extra-base hits. Diaz, Jones and Yunel Escobar (whose name always seems to come up in this section) were the only players measurably better than average in WPA.
Andruw was basically average this week, and everyone else falls into the “slightly below average” category. Willie Harris had the roughest week, and that was in limited playing time. He went 0-for-8 with a walk and was -.285 in WPA. Francoeur, McCann, Teixeira, and Kelly Johnson were varying stages of bad, although everyone but Frenchy looked decent on the surface.
Perhaps the most notable thing about the hitting this week was not the performance of the regulars, but the the performance of the reserves. With the recent roster expansion, the Braves have called up both good (Brayan Pena, who is at least better than Corky Miller) and bad (Bobby’s favorite sons: Orr and Franco). Those bench players totaled 26 plate appearances (about a week’s worth of one player’s starting time) and would have finished between Teixeira and McCann for the week at -.172 WPA. Since both Brandon Jones and Brent Lillibridge appear to be heading to the Arizona Fall League this year, they were passed over for callups, leaving virtually useless players like Orr with the leftover playing time. The next time Bobby uses Woodward or Orr to pinch-bunt when it’s not 1) for the pitcher, 2) in a first-and-second, nobody out situation, and 3) in a close game, I think my head might explode. That’s also a possibility if they pinch-“hit” at all.
Ron Mahay was the bullpen’s MVP in another taxing week for the key players. He and Pete Moylan worked five games each, and neither allowed a run. Tyler Yates was decent, with a single run allowed in 3 1/3 innings of higher-leveraged work, but no one was really used in truly crucial situations more than anyone else. There were four chances for what I call an Effective Outing (LI of > 2) this week: four different relievers took them (Yates, Mahay, Moylan, Villarreal), and everyone but Villarreal converted his (Villarreal did not manage a positive WPA in his chance). Soriano added 2 2/3 perfect innings and picked up the only save, yet only Jose Ascanio had a lower-leveraged week. Manny Acosta’s work was moderately low-leveraged, and he allowed a run in four innings.
The Braves got just a single quality start (by my definition of 6+ innings and a positive WPA) in seven tries this week, and only Lance Cormier (who got the QS) had a WPA in the black. Smoltz had two slightly below average starts, and now he’s even being used on short rest. Hudson was treated similarly and had comparable results. James and Carlyle both had short starts (5 IP) with 3 earned runs allowed, even though Buddy got a win and Chuck got a loss.
One more note before I get into the upcoming games: I have totaled the stats for August alone and noticed a few trends. On a per-plate-appearance basis among only regulars, Matt Diaz was clearly the offensive MVP. He’s still not walking much, but he’s hitting for power at a very good rate (.786 SLG and .400 ISO for a whole month!), but there’s little doubt he should be playing every day. Teixeira and Chipper were not far behind, and they led the team in aggregate production, fueled by Tex’s 10 homers. Francoeur and Andruw were at the bottom of the list, and just for fun, here are Frenchy’s walk totals by month: 9, 5, 5, 8, 6. The 9 was a good start, but his OBP is down to .335, despite a .293 average.
The pitching stats shouldn’t be a big surprise, except that neither Smoltz nor Hudson had a positive WPA in August. Cormier, Reyes, James, and Carlyle were even worse, with Carlyle posting a 6.75 ERA in six starts (zero QS). His last positive-WPA start was almost a month ago. Of course, Jo-Jo has but one (slightly) positive WPA start in his career.
The Road Ahead
It’s a long and uphill road, for sure. The Braves are at home all week against the Phillies and Nats, with these probable pitchers:
Tuesday: Carlyle vs. Kyle Lohse
Wednesday: Hudson vs. Kyle Kendrick
Friday: James vs. Joel Hanrahan
Saturday: Smoltz vs. TBA
Sunday: Cormier vs. TBA
I hope TBA isn’t very good.
