The Braves have won three of five since my last update on Tuesday, but they need about eight wins each week if they’re going to make the playoffs. A sweep against the Mets this week will only get them within a sniff of the division title, and it would be a fairly distant sniff.
This Week’s Stats
Scores and FanGraphs game summaries:
9/4: Phillies 5, Braves 2
9/5: Braves 9, Phillies 8
9/7: Braves 7, Nationals 1
9/8: Braves 9, Nationals 2
9/9: Nationals 7, Braves 4
Stats for the week (5 games) alone:
| Hitting | PA | OPS | pLI | WPA | WPA/LI | Clutch | CP | pWPA | pWPA/LI | pClutch | pCP |
| Matt Diaz | 10 | 0.500 | 1.40 | +0.822 | -0.024 | +0.846 | +0.855 | +8.22 | -0.24 | +8.46 | +8.55 |
| Chipper Jones | 22 | 1.455 | 1.33 | +0.280 | +0.529 | -0.249 | -0.425 | +1.27 | +2.40 | -1.13 | -1.93 |
| Scott Thorman | 3 | 1.333 | 1.15 | +0.136 | +0.079 | +0.057 | +0.045 | +4.53 | +2.63 | +1.90 | +1.51 |
| Yunel Escobar | 18 | 0.944 | 0.91 | +0.084 | +0.273 | -0.189 | -0.165 | +0.47 | +1.52 | -1.05 | -0.92 |
| Martin Prado | 1 | 2.000 | 1.77 | +0.051 | +0.029 | +0.022 | +0.000 | +5.10 | +2.88 | +2.22 | +0.00 |
| Jeff Francoeur | 21 | 0.855 | 0.93 | +0.030 | +0.090 | -0.060 | -0.054 | +0.14 | +0.43 | -0.29 | -0.26 |
| Chris Woodward | 0 | 0.000 | 1.83 | +0.030 | +0.016 | +0.014 | +0.000 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Edgar Renteria | 8 | 0.661 | 0.99 | +0.015 | -0.035 | +0.050 | +0.050 | +0.19 | -0.44 | +0.63 | +0.62 |
| Mark Teixeira | 21 | 0.807 | 1.06 | -0.002 | +0.073 | -0.075 | -0.080 | -0.01 | +0.35 | -0.36 | -0.38 |
| John Smoltz | 3 | 0.000 | 0.63 | -0.007 | +0.014 | -0.021 | -0.016 | -0.23 | +0.47 | -0.70 | -0.53 |
| Jo-Jo Reyes | 1 | 0.000 | 0.66 | -0.016 | -0.024 | +0.008 | +0.000 | -1.60 | -2.42 | +0.82 | +0.00 |
| Tim Hudson | 1 | 0.000 | 0.62 | -0.016 | -0.026 | +0.010 | +0.000 | -1.60 | -2.58 | +0.98 | +0.00 |
| Chuck James | 3 | 0.000 | 0.37 | -0.028 | -0.083 | +0.055 | +0.003 | -0.93 | -2.76 | +1.83 | +0.10 |
| Lance Cormier | 2 | 0.000 | 0.61 | -0.032 | -0.053 | +0.021 | +0.000 | -1.60 | -2.65 | +1.05 | +0.00 |
| Brayan Pena | 1 | 0.000 | 1.31 | -0.032 | -0.024 | -0.008 | +0.000 | -3.20 | -2.44 | -0.76 | +0.00 |
| Pete Orr | 3 | 0.000 | 1.79 | -0.063 | -0.054 | -0.009 | +0.034 | -2.10 | -1.80 | -0.30 | +1.12 |
| Andruw Jones | 19 | 0.498 | 0.89 | -0.065 | -0.039 | -0.026 | -0.030 | -0.34 | -0.20 | -0.14 | -0.16 |
| Willie Harris | 20 | 0.744 | 1.03 | -0.082 | -0.129 | +0.047 | +0.050 | -0.41 | -0.64 | +0.23 | +0.25 |
| Kelly Johnson | 18 | 0.646 | 1.17 | -0.138 | -0.073 | -0.065 | -0.053 | -0.77 | -0.40 | -0.36 | -0.29 |
| Brian McCann | 20 | 0.739 | 0.78 | -0.195 | -0.041 | -0.154 | -0.163 | -0.98 | -0.20 | -0.77 | -0.82 |
| Totals | 195 | 0.770 | 1.03 | +0.772 | +0.500 | +0.272 | +0.051 | +0.40 | +0.26 | +0.14 | +0.03 |
| Total Pitching | IP | ERA | pLI | WPA | WPA/LI | Clutch | CP | pWPA | pWPA/LI | pClutch | pCP |
| John Smoltz | 7.0 | 1.29 | 0.63 | +0.250 | +0.353 | -0.103 | +0.029 | +1.00 | +1.41 | -0.41 | +0.11 |
| Chuck James | 6.3 | 2.84 | 0.69 | +0.203 | +0.040 | +0.163 | +0.175 | +0.75 | +0.15 | +0.60 | +0.65 |
| Royce Ring | 2.3 | 0.00 | 0.34 | +0.060 | +0.121 | -0.061 | +0.019 | +0.67 | +1.34 | -0.68 | +0.21 |
| Tyler Yates | 2.0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | +0.038 | +0.098 | -0.060 | +0.016 | +0.54 | +1.41 | -0.86 | +0.23 |
| Jo-Jo Reyes | 3.3 | 2.70 | 0.97 | +0.032 | -0.020 | +0.052 | +0.051 | +0.20 | -0.12 | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| Rafael Soriano | 2.0 | 0.00 | 0.25 | +0.022 | +0.080 | -0.058 | +0.002 | +0.28 | +1.00 | -0.73 | +0.03 |
| Peter Moylan | 2.7 | 3.38 | 0.87 | -0.007 | +0.004 | -0.011 | -0.010 | -0.06 | +0.03 | -0.09 | -0.09 |
| Jose Ascanio | 2.3 | 3.86 | 0.18 | -0.025 | -0.055 | +0.030 | -0.015 | -0.19 | -0.42 | +0.23 | -0.12 |
| Manuel Acosta | 2.0 | 4.50 | 0.30 | -0.028 | -0.009 | -0.019 | -0.025 | -0.31 | -0.10 | -0.21 | -0.28 |
| Ron Mahay | 1.7 | 5.40 | 0.52 | -0.031 | -0.008 | -0.023 | -0.027 | -0.34 | -0.09 | -0.25 | -0.30 |
| Oscar Villarreal | 0.7 | 40.50 | 0.52 | -0.092 | -0.270 | +0.178 | +0.048 | -1.31 | -3.86 | +2.55 | +0.69 |
| Lance Cormier | 6.0 | 6.00 | 1.21 | -0.196 | +0.012 | -0.208 | -0.210 | -0.75 | +0.04 | -0.80 | -0.81 |
| Buddy Carlyle | 1.7 | 16.20 | 0.74 | -0.219 | -0.379 | +0.160 | +0.060 | -1.83 | -3.16 | +1.33 | +0.50 |
| Tim Hudson | 5.0 | 9.00 | 0.67 | -0.280 | -0.361 | +0.081 | -0.040 | -1.08 | -1.39 | +0.31 | -0.15 |
| Totals | 45.0 | 4.60 | 0.67 | -0.273 | -0.392 | +0.119 | +0.073 | -0.13 | -0.19 | +0.06 | +0.04 |
| Relief Pitching | G | IP | TBF | gmLI | G/T | tG/T | USG | SV | EO | EOC | EO% |
| Oscar Villarreal | 1 | 0.7 | 7 | 0.40 | 0.86 | 4.21 | 3.36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Jose Ascanio | 2 | 2.3 | 13 | 0.37 | 0.78 | 1.60 | 0.82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Peter Moylan | 3 | 2.7 | 12 | 0.90 | 1.93 | 0.88 | -1.05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Manuel Acosta | 2 | 2.0 | 9 | 0.25 | 0.54 | 0.74 | 0.20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Ron Mahay | 2 | 1.7 | 9 | 0.55 | 1.18 | 0.67 | -0.51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Rafael Soriano | 2 | 2.0 | 8 | 0.21 | 0.45 | 0.05 | -0.41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Tyler Yates | 2 | 2.0 | 7 | 0.35 | 0.75 | 0.01 | -0.74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Royce Ring | 3 | 2.3 | 9 | 0.46 | 0.98 | 0.00 | -0.98 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Totals | 17 | 15.7 | 74 | 0.47 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Season totals:
| Hitting | PA | OPS | pLI | WPA | WPA/LI | Clutch | CP | pWPA | pWPA/LI | pClutch | pCP |
| Chipper Jones | 529 | 1.014 | 1.04 | +3.155 | +3.774 | -0.619 | -0.775 | +0.60 | +0.71 | -0.12 | -0.15 |
| Yunel Escobar | 297 | 0.814 | 0.96 | +2.261 | +1.218 | +1.043 | +1.087 | +0.76 | +0.41 | +0.35 | +0.37 |
| Matt Diaz | 333 | 0.897 | 0.97 | +1.717 | +1.677 | +0.040 | +0.091 | +0.52 | +0.50 | +0.01 | +0.03 |
| Kelly Johnson | 553 | 0.861 | 0.97 | +1.580 | +2.297 | -0.717 | -0.653 | +0.29 | +0.42 | -0.13 | -0.12 |
| Edgar Renteria | 471 | 0.874 | 0.96 | +1.539 | +1.894 | -0.355 | -0.274 | +0.33 | +0.40 | -0.08 | -0.06 |
| Mark Teixeira | 162 | 1.001 | 1.04 | +1.026 | +0.764 | +0.262 | +0.229 | +0.63 | +0.47 | +0.16 | +0.14 |
| Brian McCann | 491 | 0.788 | 1.04 | +0.177 | -0.715 | +0.892 | +0.919 | +0.04 | -0.15 | +0.18 | +0.19 |
| Corky Miller | 18 | 0.572 | 1.00 | +0.065 | -0.019 | +0.084 | +0.084 | +0.36 | -0.11 | +0.47 | +0.47 |
| Martin Prado | 47 | 0.718 | 0.83 | +0.040 | +0.060 | -0.020 | -0.009 | +0.09 | +0.13 | -0.04 | -0.02 |
| Tyler Yates | 1 | 0.000 | 0.03 | -0.001 | -0.033 | +0.032 | +0.000 | -0.10 | -3.33 | +3.23 | +0.00 |
| Peter Moylan | 5 | 0.200 | 0.55 | -0.047 | -0.051 | +0.004 | -0.019 | -0.94 | -1.02 | +0.08 | -0.38 |
| Oscar Villarreal | 5 | 0.450 | 1.24 | -0.053 | -0.085 | +0.032 | +0.052 | -1.06 | -1.69 | +0.63 | +1.04 |
| Willie Harris | 361 | 0.778 | 1.01 | -0.062 | -0.310 | +0.248 | +0.252 | -0.02 | -0.09 | +0.07 | +0.07 |
| Jo-Jo Reyes | 15 | 0.431 | 1.05 | -0.116 | -0.119 | +0.003 | +0.010 | -0.77 | -0.79 | +0.02 | +0.06 |
| Tim Hudson | 72 | 0.523 | 0.74 | -0.209 | -0.334 | +0.125 | +0.038 | -0.29 | -0.46 | +0.17 | +0.05 |
| Lance Cormier | 16 | 0.063 | 0.65 | -0.256 | -0.323 | +0.067 | -0.046 | -1.60 | -2.02 | +0.42 | -0.29 |
| Julio Franco | 43 | 0.618 | 1.07 | -0.403 | -0.120 | -0.283 | -0.275 | -0.94 | -0.28 | -0.66 | -0.64 |
| Buddy Carlyle | 38 | 0.226 | 0.87 | -0.418 | -0.628 | +0.210 | +0.129 | -1.10 | -1.65 | +0.55 | +0.34 |
| Jeff Francoeur | 618 | 0.780 | 0.98 | -0.468 | -0.422 | -0.046 | -0.054 | -0.08 | -0.07 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| Brayan Pena | 25 | 0.600 | 1.40 | -0.475 | -0.272 | -0.203 | -0.094 | -1.90 | -1.09 | -0.81 | -0.38 |
| Pete Orr | 63 | 0.406 | 0.76 | -0.687 | -0.562 | -0.125 | -0.259 | -1.09 | -0.89 | -0.20 | -0.41 |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 153 | 0.745 | 1.11 | -0.711 | -0.273 | -0.438 | -0.408 | -0.46 | -0.18 | -0.29 | -0.27 |
| Chuck James | 56 | 0.292 | 0.89 | -0.766 | -0.798 | +0.032 | -0.060 | -1.37 | -1.43 | +0.06 | -0.11 |
| John Smoltz | 60 | 0.188 | 0.87 | -0.772 | -0.913 | +0.141 | +0.019 | -1.29 | -1.52 | +0.23 | +0.03 |
| Chris Woodward | 145 | 0.511 | 1.04 | -0.936 | -1.113 | +0.177 | +0.225 | -0.65 | -0.77 | +0.12 | +0.16 |
| Scott Thorman | 296 | 0.654 | 0.92 | -1.202 | -0.743 | -0.459 | -0.522 | -0.41 | -0.25 | -0.16 | -0.18 |
| Andruw Jones | 595 | 0.737 | 1.07 | -1.953 | -0.843 | -1.110 | -1.056 | -0.33 | -0.14 | -0.19 | -0.18 |
| Totals | 5628 | 0.775 | 0.99 | +0.156 | +1.385 | -1.229 | -1.746 | +0.00 | +0.02 | -0.02 | -0.03 |
| Total Pitching | IP | ERA | pLI | WPA | WPA/LI | Clutch | CP | pWPA | pWPA/LI | pClutch | pCP |
| Peter Moylan | 79.7 | 1.92 | 0.78 | +2.351 | +1.376 | +0.975 | +1.284 | +0.74 | +0.43 | +0.31 | +0.40 |
| John Smoltz | 181.7 | 3.02 | 1.03 | +2.024 | +2.385 | -0.361 | -0.435 | +0.27 | +0.32 | -0.05 | -0.06 |
| Rafael Soriano | 62.0 | 3.34 | 1.16 | +1.688 | +1.093 | +0.595 | +0.424 | +0.71 | +0.46 | +0.25 | +0.18 |
| Tim Hudson | 194.7 | 3.47 | 0.92 | +1.435 | +2.562 | -1.127 | -0.913 | +0.18 | +0.32 | -0.14 | -0.11 |
| Chuck James | 147.7 | 4.21 | 1.00 | +0.895 | -0.359 | +1.254 | +1.254 | +0.14 | -0.06 | +0.20 | +0.20 |
| Tyler Yates | 61.3 | 4.70 | 1.07 | +0.638 | +0.266 | +0.372 | +0.353 | +0.24 | +0.10 | +0.14 | +0.13 |
| Manuel Acosta | 13.7 | 1.32 | 0.56 | +0.332 | +0.456 | -0.124 | +0.078 | +0.64 | +0.88 | -0.24 | +0.15 |
| Ron Mahay | 19.3 | 1.86 | 1.19 | +0.102 | +0.210 | -0.108 | -0.149 | +0.13 | +0.27 | -0.14 | -0.19 |
| Royce Ring | 3.0 | 0.00 | 0.30 | +0.094 | +0.255 | -0.161 | +0.018 | +0.85 | +2.31 | -1.46 | +0.16 |
| Chad Paronto | 40.3 | 3.57 | 0.63 | -0.120 | -0.364 | +0.244 | +0.111 | -0.07 | -0.20 | +0.14 | +0.06 |
| Jose Ascanio | 11.3 | 3.97 | 0.69 | -0.298 | +0.049 | -0.347 | -0.332 | -0.55 | +0.09 | -0.64 | -0.61 |
| Oscar Villarreal | 73.0 | 4.44 | 0.78 | -0.428 | -0.403 | -0.025 | -0.115 | -0.13 | -0.13 | -0.01 | -0.04 |
| Bob Wickman | 43.7 | 3.92 | 2.05 | -0.472 | -0.173 | -0.299 | -0.117 | -0.23 | -0.08 | -0.15 | -0.06 |
| Buddy Carlyle | 96.7 | 5.21 | 0.88 | -1.049 | -0.421 | -0.628 | -0.679 | -0.25 | -0.10 | -0.15 | -0.16 |
| Lance Cormier | 43.7 | 6.60 | 0.83 | -1.051 | -0.988 | -0.063 | -0.229 | -0.53 | -0.50 | -0.03 | -0.12 |
| Jo-Jo Reyes | 33.7 | 7.75 | 1.02 | -1.327 | -1.164 | -0.163 | -0.139 | -0.83 | -0.73 | -0.10 | -0.09 |
| Kyle Davies | 86.0 | 5.76 | 0.98 | -1.659 | -1.037 | -0.622 | -0.640 | -0.43 | -0.27 | -0.16 | -0.16 |
| Totals | 1286.3 | 4.20 | 0.96 | +1.340 | +1.293 | +0.047 | -0.194 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | -0.00 |
| Relief Pitching | G | IP | TBF | gmLI | G/T | tG/T | USG | SV | EO | EOC | EO% |
| Peter Moylan | 68 | 79.7 | 319 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 1.82 | 0.99 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 100% |
| Rafael Soriano | 62 | 62.0 | 239 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.39 | 0.05 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 73% |
| Tyler Yates | 69 | 61.3 | 271 | 1.04 | 1.03 | 1.13 | 0.10 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 60% |
| Chad Paronto | 41 | 40.3 | 180 | 0.82 | 0.81 | 0.99 | 0.18 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 40% |
| Oscar Villarreal | 49 | 73.0 | 321 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.68 | -0.30 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 64% |
| Ron Mahay | 19 | 19.3 | 79 | 1.05 | 1.04 | 0.59 | -0.45 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 50% |
| Manuel Acosta | 11 | 13.7 | 52 | 0.68 | 0.67 | 0.57 | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| Royce Ring | 4 | 3.0 | 11 | 0.41 | 0.41 | 0.53 | 0.12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Jo-Jo Reyes | 1 | 3.3 | 16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Bob Wickman | 49 | 43.7 | 204 | 1.60 | 1.59 | 0.37 | -1.22 | 20 | 11 | 15 | 73% |
| Jose Ascanio | 9 | 11.3 | 54 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.32 | -0.08 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Buddy Carlyle | 1 | 1.0 | 4 | 0.58 | 0.57 | 0.00 | -0.57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| Totals | 455 | 474.7 | 2055 | 1.01 | 187 | 34 | 52 | 76 | 68% |
Best plays of the week:
- Matt Diaz hit a 3-run, game-winning double off Brett Myers in the 9th inning of Wednesday’s wild 9-8 win, shattering the Braves’ previous high in WPA for a single play this season (+.820).
- Chipper Jones hit a 3-run homer off Joel Hanrahan, giving the Braves a 3-0 lead in the third inning of Friday’s game (+.183).
- Willie Harris drew a walk against Brett Myers, keeping the bases loaded and driving in a run to close the Phillies lead to 8-6 in the 8th inning on Wednesday (+.133).
- Chipper Jones hit a 2-run homer off Jason Bergmann in the first inning of yesterday’s game, giving the Braves an early 2-0 lead (+.122).
- Mark Teixeira doubled in a run off Jason Bergmann in the third inning of yesterday’s game, extending the Braves’ lead to 2 once again (+.108).
Comments
Every other play this week paled in comparison to Matt Diaz’ game-winning double on Wednesday. It was a crazy finish with unlikely hits, and the ultimate example of why a game is not over, even when Win Probability says it’s an almost certain loss. At its lowest, the Braves’ win expectancy in that game was under one percent (during the top of the 8th). They scored 4 in the 8th and 3 in the 9th to pull it out in what seemed to be the most spectacular fashion possible.
The rest of the week was up-and-down, much like the entire season so far. It should be no surprise that Matt Diaz was the WPA leader, even if his +.822 week was based almost entirely on that game-winning hit. Chipper Jones probably had the best week at the plate, going 7-for-19, with six of those seven hits for extra bases, including three homers. Escobar was slightly in the black, while Francoeur and Teixeira hovered around zero.
Andruw Jones, Willie Harris, Kelly Johnson, and Brian McCann were all somewhat below zero, even though none of them had a particularly awful week. It’s probably also important to note that Edgar Renteria was 2-for-7 in his return, and that Scott Thorman’s pair of hits in three tries gave him a solid positive WPA for the week.
On the pitching side, the Braves again failed to get a majority of quality starts for the week (remember, 6+ IP and positive WPA by my definition), a feat the staff hasn’t accomplished since the last week of July. Braves pitchers have collectively finished below zero WPA for five of the last six weeks.
This week, both Smoltz and James provided quality starts, while Cormier (okay), Hudson (bad), and Carlyle (let’s not talk about it) were varying stages of lesser-than-ideal quality. Jo-Jo Reyes came on to clean up Carlyle’s mess and was in the black over 3 1/3 innings, but I’m not going to get too excited about it. You’ll have to excuse me for leaving Reyes’ name off of the relief pitching totals for the week, but his outing is reflected in the season relief totals.
Aside from Villarreal’s rough inning, the bullpen looked very good. It’s hard to say much about them, except that I’m happy that their arms are still fully attached. Hopefully this year’s poor starting pitching won’t have career-destroying effects on the promising arms of Yates, Soriano, and Moylan because of their overwork.
The Road Ahead
The week starts out with a virtually meaningless series against the Mets, whom the Braves shouldn’t really be chasing anymore in the standings. They’ll finish the week in Washington, facing another team they shouldn’t be chasing in the standings.
The Braves are only 4.5 back in the wild card, but four teams are currently ahead of them. More importantly, those teams are also legitimately better teams, with the possible exception of Colorado (1.5 games up on the Braves for fourth in the WC standings).
Here are this week’s probables:
Monday: Hudson vs. Oliver Perez
Tuesday: Carlyle vs. El Duque
Wednesday: Smoltz vs. John Maine
Friday: James vs. Matt Chico
Saturday: Cormier vs. Jason Bergmann
Sunday: Hudson vs. Shawn Hill
jfwiii.net 
It’s shaping up as a pretty dull September across the board. The whole AL playoff field is basically decided, while in the NL, the East is over and the Central is a shameful exercise in who can tread water and stay above .500 ’til the games run out.
That said, if the current playoff field holds, then 4 of the top 5 in payroll will make it, but so will 4 of the bottom 13. Maybe the most interesting thing will be to see if the White Sox can finish with the worst record in baseball despite spending the 4th most.