I know it’s not evident by the volume of posts about baseball and basketball, but I really don’t favor those sports over football to such a great degree. This is mostly a result of my interest in statistical analysis, which is profoundly more difficult for football than the other sports.
For baseball, I can grab what I need from a major-league play-by-play log if I want to analyze everything but fielding. Here, I try to provide some win probability-related analysis that’s not common for baseball. There are plenty of great sabermetrically-inclined news sources out there, so I’m just trying to shed some light where there otherwise is none. After all, there wouldn’t really be any point in posting anything (or messing around in Excel to come up with stuff) if other people were already doing it.
The same is true for basketball, where I can grab a box score and tell you plenty of things about player and team efficiency on the offensive side, and maybe I can guess about individual defensive ability. There’s still a long way to go before individual ability can be properly measured, though. How do I know that one player is efficient if he has to rely on positioning himself, getting the ball, and making decisions in relation to his teammates? The short answer is: I don’t.
Football has an even longer way to go. The best stats (Football Outsiders’ DPAR and DVOA) could be equated with basketball “efficiency,” I suppose, but their methods are proprietary and based on data that’s not readily available to the public (at least as far as I know).
I guess what I’m saying is that I don’t have much to add in terms of football insight, unless I piggyback off of Football Outsiders’ DVOA stats and tell you what they say. As a result, there are far fewer football posts, and I don’t have much to say much about the 49ers except that I’m excited they won this past week (well, I guess the defense looked good, and the running game was frustrating to watch, especially for a Frank Gore fantasy owner). They were also the only winning team to have a lower DVOA than their opponent in Week 1.
So, let me point you to my main sources of (NFL) football insight, since I seem to have little to add on my own:
That’s about it. I’m not a Peter King fan, but I’m certainly open to suggestions. Is there something I’m missing out on because I don’t read a particular person’s column?